Retail Surveys

Sales taper in week after Black Friday

Dec 9, 2011

New York--Sales increased just 0.2 percent year-over-year for the week ending Dec. 3, representing a 22.5 percent decrease from the prior week, which included the largest Black Friday in history, both in terms of sales and traffic.

This information comes from ShopperTrak, which stated that this sharp decline in retail sales is typical of the week following Thanksgiving. As reported earlier, Black Friday weekend seems to be shifting to encompass the days prior to the shopping event. Stores saw more foot traffic before Black Friday this year than after, ShopperTrak said, indicating that consumers shopped earlier in the season, possibly leading to the drop-off in sales last week.

“After the ‘Black’ weekend promotions play out, shoppers settle back and shop online for Cyber Monday deals,” Bill Martin, founder of ShopperTrak, said. “They assess their holiday shopping lists and budgets, and over the next few weeks they will head back to stores in increasing numbers to finish shopping.”

NPD: 'Buying visits' up
The NPD Group reported that for the week ending Dec. 5, total buying visits--which NPD defines as a consumer reporting making a purchase--were up 6 percent from the previous week. The week prior, which included Black Friday, saw a 4 percent increase in buying visits, the group said.

“These increases can be attributed to the activity spurred by Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday,” NPD stated in its Shopping Activity Weekly Holiday Trends Report.

While it reported an increase in shopping overall, NPD noted a decline in brick-and-mortar shopping conversion rates. For the week ending Dec. 5, brick-and-mortar shopping conversion came in at 67 percent, about flat to 68 percent the previous week.

“The overall dip in brick-and-mortar shopping conversion is the expected during this time period,” Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at The NPD Group, said. “What is interesting is how the online business has become a bigger part of holiday shopping all season long.”

ShopperTrak noted that Hanukkah began later this year than in 2010, and Cyber Monday was the largest in its history--two factors that “contributed to a lackluster week in retail sales at brick-and-mortar stores” last week.

NPD data suggests that the increase in shopping activity was a result of traffic via the online channel, where buying visits jumped to 17 percent the week ending Dec. 5, up from 14 percent the previous week.

“Going forward we will be able to see which retailers will have the edge, which merchandise is getting the consumer to purchase,” Cohen said, adding the next few weeks will be a time to see which retailers have the right products at the right prices. “Ultimately, they are the ones that will prosper through the rest of the season. And how well they do can be the difference between ‘make or break’ for the year.”

The NPD Group’s Shopper Activity Weekly Holiday Trends Report follows weekly holiday shopping trends throughout the 2011 holiday season and is fielded to 4,750 U.S. consumers daily.

ShopperTrak analyzed foot traffic from more than 25,000 locations in the United States to create this National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE) of general merchandise, apparel, accessories and other sales.

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