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Washington--The National Retail Federation (NRF) announced Thursday that it now expects holiday sales to rise 4 percent to $469.1 billion, up from its 3 percent forecast issued in October.

While the 4 percent increase is above the 10-year average of 3 percent, it is still lower than the 5 percent sales gain witnessed last holiday season.

The NRF said it is increasing its forecast because of strong October and November sales and a “successful” Black Friday weekend.

The NRF also points to the recently reported 5 percent increase in November retail sales and the results of its recent holiday survey, which found that the average American has completed less than half of their holiday shopping at this point, as positive economic indicators.

However, the organization notes that the ongoing debt crisis in Europe and political wrangling in Washington could impact consumer spending this holiday season and into 2012.