CollectionsApr 16, 2024
Akaila Reid Launches ‘Eat Cake’ CollectionIt’s ultra-feminine and filled with gold, pearls, and soft pastels.
SurveysOct 04, 2017
NRF Predicts Holiday Retail Sales Increase of Up to 4%
The National Retail Federation cited economic growth and improved consumer confidence in releasing its annual November-December forecast.
The National Retail Federation is estimating holiday retail sales growth of between 3.6 and 4 percent in November and December.
Washington--Talk about the 2017 holiday season has officially begun, and if the National Retail Federation’s prediction holds true, it could be a good one for retailers.
The trade association released its holiday sales forecast Tuesday morning, stating that it expects retail sales in November and December--excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants--to increase between 3.6 and 4 percent for a total of $678.75 billion to $682 billion.
Such growth would meet or exceed last year’s increase of 3.6 percent and the five-year average of 3.5 percent.
(This is the first time the NRF has announced the forecast as a range rather than as a single fixed percentage, which it said was due to the recent hurricanes. While they are not expected to have a significant long-term effect on the economy, the association said they still have had enough of an impact on economic indicators to make it difficult to make a more precise forecast.)
The estimated growth for the 2017 holiday season was based on a number of factors, beginning with the strength of the economy.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said on a conference call Tuesday morning that while the recent economic growth of about 2 percent is “not as robust” as they’d like to see, it still has been a solid performance. He added that it continues to expand at a steady-but-modest pace.
Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz echoed these sentiments, noting that while unemployment and consumer spending will be “clouded” by the effects of the hurricanes, he still expects spending to increase and for there to be continued gains in employment and wages.
Additionally, Shay referenced the strength of the consumer as one of the reasons for predicted growth in sales: “We continue to see the consumer doing, really, a substantial portion of the heavy lifting in economic growth by keeping the economy moving forward.”
He cited the fact that retailers are learning how to better connect with consumers across all channels as a third reason for the prediction of a year-over-year sales increase.
Also, because of the way the calendar lines up this year, with Thanksgiving on Nov. 24 and Christmas Day falling on a Monday, there will be an extra weekend in the season for shopping.
RELATED CONTENT: The 10 Days Predicted to be the Busiest This Holiday SeasonHe noted that while the Consumer Sentiment Index showed a slight decline in September after a seven-month
high in August, consumer resilience is shown in their willingness to spend and the way they’re accessing credit and taking on debt.
Along with job creation, improved wages and an increase in net worth, these factors are creating conditions for confidence in spending and investing.
Competition and Price Sensitivity
Along with reasons why they expect growth in retail sales during the two-month holiday shopping period, the NRF also spoke about the trends expected to have an impact on the season.
For the past few years, and to no one’s surprise, Shay said they have seen that consumers are different in the post-Great Recession era.
Pricing, Shay said, is a “very significant indicator of spending.”
He added that consumers will be very price sensitive and that they expect it to be a critical factor for consumers as they make decisions about retail spending this holiday season.
And with the level of transparency that exists in the marketplace among competitors and the ability of consumers to “price shop” instantaneously, retailers will need to keep an even closer eye on each other’s promotions and offers, and on consumer shopping behaviors, so they can best deliver the product at the right prices and on the right channels.
This has to happen because, ultimately, the consumer will stay “pragmatic, looking for value, looking for price and certainly looking for convenience,” Kleinhenz said.
Along with job creation, improved wages and an increase in net worth, these factors are creating conditions for confidence in spending and investing.
Competition and Price Sensitivity
Along with reasons why they expect growth in retail sales during the two-month holiday shopping period, the NRF also spoke about the trends expected to have an impact on the season.
For the past few years, and to no one’s surprise, Shay said they have seen that consumers are different in the post-Great Recession era.
Pricing, Shay said, is a “very significant indicator of spending.”
He added that consumers will be very price sensitive and that they expect it to be a critical factor for consumers as they make decisions about retail spending this holiday season.
And with the level of transparency that exists in the marketplace among competitors and the ability of consumers to “price shop” instantaneously, retailers will need to keep an even closer eye on each other’s promotions and offers, and on consumer shopping behaviors, so they can best deliver the product at the right prices and on the right channels.
This has to happen because, ultimately, the consumer will stay “pragmatic, looking for value, looking for price and certainly looking for convenience,” Kleinhenz said.
More on Surveys
The Latest
MajorsApr 16, 2024
Loudr Adds 2 DirectorsEmily Highet Morgan and Emily Bennett have joined the agency’s team.
MajorsApr 16, 2024
Stuller Releases First Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry CatalogIts updated book for mountings is also now available.
Brought to you by
The Blueprint for Success in Scalable, Personalized Jewelry RetailWith Ho Brothers, you can unlock your brand's true potential and offer customers the personalized jewelry experiences they desire.
SourcingApr 16, 2024
Karen Rentmeesters Takes Over as Interim CEO of AWDCShe has been with the organization since 2010, most recently serving as its chief officer of PR and industry relations.
Weekly QuizApr 11, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge with this seven-question quiz.
TechnologyApr 15, 2024
Judge Rules Jeweler’s Lawsuit Against PNC Bank Can Move ForwardJoyce’s Jewelry sued the bank after cybercriminals drained its accounts of nearly $1.6 million through a series of wire transfers.
IndependentsApr 15, 2024
Alfred W. DeScenza of DeScenza Diamonds Dies at 95He is remembered by loved ones for his loyalty, integrity, and kindness.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers of America Represents Your BusinessFor over 30 years, JA has advocated for the industry, fought against harmful legislation and backed measures that help jewelry businesses.
AuctionsApr 15, 2024
Madeleine K. Albright Jewelry, Pins Coming to AuctionHosted by Freeman’s | Hindman, the sale will take place May 7-8.
AuctionsApr 15, 2024
All of Sotheby’s ‘Rough Diamonds’ Sold in Less Than an HourThe auction house said all 24 timepieces offered in its underground sale of rare and avant-garde watches quickly found buyers.
Events & AwardsApr 15, 2024
10 Can’t-Miss Sessions at AGS Conclave 2024From lab-grown diamonds and AI to the inevitable Taylor Swift mention, here are some of Conclave’s most intriguing educational offerings.
Recorded WebinarsApr 12, 2024
Watch: What Jewelers Need to Know About InsuranceFrom cybersecurity liability to trade show coverage, insurance experts share tips on how to build the right policy.
CollectionsApr 12, 2024
Piece of the Week: Lionheart’s Evil Eye Gemstone CharmThe charm is a modern rendition of the evil eye amulet that has been worn for thousands of years.
Events & AwardsApr 12, 2024
The Jewelry Symposium Announces 4 Scholarship WinnersAhead of its trade show next month, TJS awarded free registration and accommodations to one jewelry professional and three students.
Policies & IssuesApr 11, 2024
SRK Exports’ Journey Toward Net Zero Impact By the end of this year, SRK’s diamond manufacturing complexes will achieve net zero emissions, one of an impressive array of achievements.
Lab-GrownApr 11, 2024
AGTA Bans Lab-Grown Diamonds, Gemstones at GemFairMembers can still sell lab-grown stones, it said, but only natural gems are allowed on the show floor.
IndependentsApr 11, 2024
Steven Rosdal, Co-Founder of Hyde Park Jewelers, Dies at 77He is remembered for his charisma, passion, integrity, kindness, and wit.
MajorsApr 11, 2024
Macy’s Opens Books for Possible BuyoutThe retailer also appointed two new board members, avoiding a proxy fight from a potential buyer.
CollectionsApr 10, 2024
Sylvie Launches New Nature-Inspired Collection, ‘Tulira’The bridal collection consists of 35 engagement rings and seven wedding bands.
WatchesApr 10, 2024
These Are Rolex’s New Watches for 2024 The crown introduced a dozen timepieces in Geneva, including a heavy metal version of its deep-sea divers’ watch.
IndependentsApr 10, 2024
Levy's Fine Jewelry Explores Diamond History The family-owned jeweler has a new education section on its website dedicated to the history of diamond cutting.
CollectionsApr 10, 2024
With Clarity Partners With NFL on Wedding Bands The limited-edition men’s rings can be customized with one of 12 team logos.
SourcingApr 10, 2024
Compliance, Caution, and Concern: The Current Outlook of Indian Diamantaires There is a willingness to comply with new government-mandated regulations, with an insistence that they should be practical and realistic.
WatchesApr 09, 2024
Chrono24 Debuts Pre-Owned Watch Authentication ProgramThe program, now live in Europe, will roll out to the U.S. this summer.
AuctionsApr 09, 2024
Phillips to Offer 6.21-Carat Vivid Pink DiamondColored gemstones and signed jewels are the focus of its upcoming Geneva sale.
SourcingApr 09, 2024
Former De Beers Exec Appointed to Lucapa Board Stuart Brown, who was De Beers’ CFO and interim CEO, is now Lucapa’s independent non-executive chairman.
MajorsApr 09, 2024
Jewel360 Announces New POS Integration, JFC PartnershipThe point-of-sale software can now prompt customers to round up their credit card purchases as a donation to Jewelers for Children.
