Financials

Retail Sales Growth in 2021 Depends on Vaccines, Says NRF

FinancialsFeb 25, 2021

Retail Sales Growth in 2021 Depends on Vaccines, Says NRF

The National Retail Federation is optimistic about the year ahead, so long as the vaccine rollout goes according to plan.

20210225_Retail_header.jpg
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent to more than $4.33 trillion in 2021, according to the National Retail Federation.

Washington, D.C.—The National Retail Federation’s annual forecast called for a strong year ahead as the vaccine rollout continues.

Retail sales are expected to grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent to more than $4.33 trillion in 2021.

In a media call about the results, CEO Matthew Shay said the U.S. hasn’t seen this level of sales growth since 2004, noting the average growth has been 4.5 percent over the past five years.

Retail sales grew 6.7 percent year-over-year in 2020 and 3.9 percent in 2019.

“We continue to be optimistic that in the aggregate, macroeconomic conditions are very healthy and will continue to improve,” said Shay.

Online sales in 2021 are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.14 trillion and $1.19 trillion.

The NRF expects to see job gains between 220,000 and 300,000 jobs per month while GDP growth is expected to be between 4.5 and 5 percent.

“This forecast is a snapshot based on the current economic environment,” cautioned Shay, as some uncertainty remains.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted the economy’s trajectory is dependent on the effectiveness of the vaccine and its distribution.

The worst-case scenario, said Kleinhenz on the call, includes mutations of the virus or a vaccine that is ineffective.

Presuming that vaccination efforts are successful, Kleinhenz expects the economy to see its fastest growth in more than two decades.

Kleinhenz highlighted several factors to back up the NRF’s optimism, including a second year of “extraordinary savings,” record high stock valuations, increasing home prices, and low interest rates.

Stimulus checks have been especially helpful in boosting consumer spending, he said, particularly for the unemployed and the lower and middle classes.

“The consumer certainly has purchasing power and is willing to spend and we believe that’s going to be important,” said Kleinhenz.

The more affluent consumers have not been spending as much in comparison, he said.

About one-third of stimulus dollars go toward spending with another one-third going to savings and the remaining one-third paying down debt, noted Kleinhenz.

Retailers have benefited from a shift to goods from services over the last nine to 10 months, but the pendulum may swing in the other direction going forward, he said.

As life returns closer to normal, Kleinhenz said consumers will still spend on retail goods, but will spend on services as well, which accounts for 70 percent of consumer spending.

Buying online will stick around, he said, as consumers enjoy the convenience and product selection.

The NRF said it will update its estimates as available data and other factors change.

Lenore Fedowis the associate editor, news at National Jeweler, covering the retail beat and the business side of jewelry.

The Latest

Future Fortune sapphire ring
TechnologyMar 28, 2024
Pinterest’s 2024 Wedding Report Is Out

The report shows that couples are searching for vintage and antique rings, gold jewelry, pearls, and colorful pieces.

David Ettinger
IndependentsMar 28, 2024
David Ettinger of Bechdel Jewelers Dies at 69

He’s remembered as a “font of passion,” leaving behind a legacy of dedication to his craft and community.

Jewelers of America logo
IndependentsMar 28, 2024
JA to Host Series of Learning Workshops

The first one will take place next month during the Jewelers of Louisiana’s and Mississippi Jewelers Association’s conventions.

Jewelers of America Fly In Washington, D.C.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers of America Represents Your Business

For over 30 years, JA has advocated for the industry, fought against harmful legislation and backed measures that help jewelry businesses.

Jaeger-LeCoultre Madison Avenue NYC store
WatchesMar 28, 2024
Peek Inside Jaeger-LeCoultre’s Revamped NYC Flagship

The redesigned boutique features interactive displays and a workshop space for hands-on learning about watchmaking.

Weekly QuizMar 28, 2024
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge with this short test.
Take the Quiz
Asian Star’s diamond manufacturing facility in India
SourcingMar 27, 2024
Compliance, Caution, and Concern: The Current Outlook of Indian Diamantaires

There is a willingness to comply with new government-mandated regulations, with an insistence that they should be practical and realistic.

Kira Diam solar plant
Lab-GrownMar 27, 2024
Indian Lab-Grown Diamond Manufacturers Keep Growing

A combination of factors is driving growth in the industry despite the precipitous drop in prices across the board.

BTYB-HoBrothers-updated.png
Brought to you by
The Scalable, Professional, and Effortless Solution for High-Demand Custom Jewelry Retailers

Ho Brothers offers scalable solutions for the future of custom jewelry.

Bharat Ratnam, a Mega Common Facilitation Centre (CFC)
SourcingMar 27, 2024
Reinvigorating SEEPZ, the Epicenter of India’s Studded Jewelry Exports

The zone’s modernization will enhance and increase India’s jewelry manufacturing capabilities while aiding small and mid-sized businesses.

SRK Empire and SRK House
Policies & IssuesMar 27, 2024
SRK Exports’ Journey Toward Net Zero Impact

By the end of this year, SRK’s diamond manufacturing complexes will achieve net zero emissions, one of an impressive array of achievements.

Hand holding shopping bags
SurveysMar 27, 2024
Consumer Confidence Held Steady in March

Optimism about the current state of the economy was offset by anxiety around inflation and the political environment.

Bernadette Mack
Policies & IssuesMar 27, 2024
Mercury Free Mining Hires Bernadette Mack

The former WJA executive director is MFM’s new managing director.

April Is Diamonds Do Good Month
Policies & IssuesMar 27, 2024
Diamonds Do Good Announces Its April Initiative

DDG encourages retailers to educate customers on the positive impact of purchasing natural diamonds.

Tiffany & Co. With Love, Since 1837
MajorsMar 26, 2024
Tiffany & Co. Debuts ‘With Love, Since 1837’ Campaign

Highlighting the most iconic Tiffany collections, it’s inspired by the company’s late window designer, Gene Moore.

National Jeweler columnists Duvall O’Steen and Jen Cullen Williams
ColumnistsMar 26, 2024
Creative Connecting: AI Tools and Tips for Social Media

Jen Cullen Williams and Duvall O’Steen explore how jewelers can save time and money by using AI to analyze engagement and create content.

Nordstrom Men’s Store New York City
MajorsMar 26, 2024
Nordstrom May Go Private, Says Report

The retailer previously turned down an $8.4 billion offer in 2018.

Interior of Miami Lakes Jewelers
IndependentsMar 26, 2024
Miami Lakes Jewelers to Close After 37 Years

The Florida store’s owner Miguel Gonzalez is retiring.

 International Gemological Institute
GradingMar 26, 2024
IGI Announces Tech for ID’ing Lab-Grown Colored Diamonds

The lab stresses the importance of accurate identification, as the difference in price is “substantial.”

Kendra Scott lab-grown diamond jewelry
CollectionsMar 25, 2024
Kendra Scott Debuts Lab-Grown Diamond Fashion Jewelry

The brand also plans to expand its retail footprint from 138 to 200 stores over the next three years.

Instappraise logo NAJA logo
Events & AwardsMar 25, 2024
NAJA, Instappraise Offering Scholarships for Aspiring Jewelry Appraisers

One is reserved for a NAJA member, the other for a non-member.

Carie Lehrke and Megan Mattice
MajorsMar 25, 2024
Borsheims Announces New VP of HR, Assistant Manager

Longtime employees Carie Lehrke and Megan Mattice have received promotions.

My Next Question graphic vintage jewelry webinar
Recorded WebinarsMar 22, 2024
Watch: How to Buy and Sell Vintage Jewelry

Three guests joined National Jeweler and Jewelers of America to discuss trending time periods, spotting reproductions, and more.

Chris Clipper and Robert Lepere
MajorsMar 22, 2024
David Yurman Announces New CFO, Chief People Officer

Chris Clipper and Robert Lepere join the company with 50 years of combined experience.

Nakard pyrite earrings
CollectionsMar 22, 2024
Piece of the Week: Nakard’s Pyrite Earrings

The trendy, metallic earrings wink at classic spring colors.

Stock image of police cars with their lights on
CrimeMar 21, 2024
Sparks Fly as Burglars Lose Safe on California Freeway

JSA said a man and woman pulled the safe out of an Oakland jewelry store but couldn’t quite get it into their van.

Grizzly Mining rough emeralds
SourcingMar 21, 2024
Grizzly Sells 4,145-Carat Emerald for Over $1M

The miner’s March auction generated $19 million.

Helen McCluskey
MajorsMar 21, 2024
Signet Jewelers Names New Board Chair

Helen McCluskey will succeed H. Todd Stitzer when he meets his 12-year term limit in June.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy