Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
An Updated Look at the Lab-Grown Diamond Market: Size, Pricing, and More Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
Looking Ahead: 4 Factors That Could Shape Lab-Grown Diamonds’ Future
Growing supply and falling prices likely will make differentiation a necessity and a reality, according to analyst Paul Zimnisky.
A worker at the Lightbox factory in Gresham, Oregon, where De Beers Group grows diamonds. Consumer demand for lab-grown diamonds is increasing, begging the question, what will the market look like in 10 to 15 years? Analyst Paul Zimnisky shared his viewpoints in a new report. (Photo courtesy of Lightbox/De Beers Group)
New York—Lab-grown diamonds are the category currently sparking the most conversation in the industry, from the debate over stocking the stones, to the questions of who is buying them, and who might be selling them in the near future.
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
Related stories will be right here …
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
The lack of grading reports, coupled with an increased supply, will further drive down the price of lab-grown diamonds, which already are significantly cheaper than natural diamonds.
According to Zimnisky, in mid-2018, a generic (non-branded) 1-carat, G VS1 lab-grown diamond retailed for $3,625, compared with $6,600 for a natural diamond of the same size and quality.
Today, that same lab-grown diamond retails for $1,615 while the natural is $6,705.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.” — Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
The expectation that prices will continue to drop sets the stage for the final two factors to come into play—branding and proprietary design, and custom shapes and colors.
There are existing jewelry companies positioned to pull off a “luxurious” version of lab-grown diamonds by leveraging existing brand value, with Zimnisky noting in his report, “A product does not necessarily need to be limited by nature for it to be rare or luxurious.”
He points to the Hermès Birkin bag as an example.
Hermès deliberately limits the supply to drive up value, and it works, with the coveted handbag trading hands for tens of thousands of dollars, at least, on the secondhand market.
“Theoretically, if Hermès came out with an exclusive, limited-edition lab-grown diamond ring, it would likely be perceived by consumers as an Hermès ring first, and a lab-grown diamond ring second,” Zimnisky writes.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.”
Two pieces in “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular jewelry brand’s new collection of lab-grown diamond jewelry. The line launched in the United States in August following a test in the U.K.
He does, however, see the opportunity for a “bridge” category of lab-grown diamond jewelry to emerge, lines that are lower-priced but affiliated with “premium” brands.
He points to “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular charm brand’s lab-grown diamond line that arrived in the United States late last month, as a current example.
Tested in the U.K. and proven to be more popular for gift-giving than for self-purchase, the line seems poised to take off in the U.S., with 33 styles to choose from in sterling silver or 14-karat gold and prices starting at $300.
“Pandora will be successful,” Zimnisky said. “They already have the right customer, distribution lined up, the right price point. It fits their business model better than anyone [else’s], in my opinion.”
Like branding, the fourth factor expected to shape the future of the lab-grown market—custom shapes and colors—will be a path diamond growers pursue in order to set themselves apart as prices fall and quality equalizes across the board.
Growers will take advantage of the stones’ lower prices to experiment in ways not possible or financially feasible with natural diamonds, Zimnisky said.
Indeed, some shape and color experimentation has popped up in the market already.
In 2018, Apple’s Jony Ive and design partner Marc Newson partnered with diamond grower Diamond Foundry in 2018 to create a ring entirely made out of diamond, while Swarovski rolled out of a line of imaginatively named lab-grown diamonds in a wide variety of colors in early 2020.
“People will eventually be able to go to a website and get a diamond cut into whatever shape they want,” Zimnisky predicts, whether it’s a Star of David, a cross, or a cat.
“What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” is available in its entirety on Zimnisky’s website.
More on Lab-Grown
The Latest
FinancialsMay 17, 2024
Richemont Appoints Van Cleef & Arpels’ Nicolas Bos as New CEOThe announcement coincided with its full-year results, with growth driven by its jewelry brands.
FinancialsMay 17, 2024
Watches of Switzerland’s Fiscal-Year Sales Flat Looking ahead, the retailer said it sees “enormous potential” in Roberto Coin’s ability to boost its branded jewelry business.
Recorded WebinarsMay 17, 2024
Watch: Preparing for Trade Show SuccessJewelry trade show veterans share strategies for engaging buyers, managing your time effectively, and packing the right shoes.
Brought to you by
Record Gold Prices Have Consumers Undeterred. Here’s Why.Despite the rising prices, consumers continue to seek out the precious metal.
AuctionsMay 17, 2024
Piece of the Week: Cartier’s Ring-Tailed LemurThis little guy’s name is Ricky and he just sold for more than $200,000 at Sotheby’s Geneva jewelry auction.
Weekly QuizMay 16, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these seven questions.
AuctionsMay 16, 2024
Christie’s Holds 2 Sales Despite CyberattackThough its website has been down for a week, Christie’s proceeded with its jewelry and watch auctions on May 13-14, bringing in nearly $80 million.
AuctionsMay 16, 2024
Sotheby’s Withdraws 101-Carat Yellow Diamond from AuctionDespite the absence of “The Allnatt,” Sotheby’s Geneva jewelry auction totaled $34 million, with 90 percent of lots sold.
Brought to you by
From Registration to Return: 10 Tips to Protect You Before, During and After a TradeshowTradeshow risks are real. Get tips to protect yourself before, during and after and gain safety and security awareness for your business.
ColumnistsMay 16, 2024
The PR Adviser: What the Designer Should’ve DoneLilian Raji gives advice to designers on how to make the most of great publicity opportunities.
SourcingMay 16, 2024
Lucapa to Shed Stake in Lesotho Diamond Mine The mining company wants to divest its 70 percent holding in the Mothae Diamond Mine in an effort to streamline its portfolio.
ColumnistsMay 15, 2024
Squirrel Spotting: Why Retailers Struggle to Fire BrandsWhy do so many jewelers keep lines that are not selling? Peter Smith thinks the answer lies in these two behavioral principles.
AuctionsMay 15, 2024
Red Diamond Breaks Records at Phillips GenevaThe “Argyle Phoenix” sold for more than $4 million at the auction house’s second jewels sale.
Events & AwardsMay 15, 2024
See Who’s in JA’s 2024 ‘20 Under 40’ ClassThe annual list recognizes young professionals making an impact in jewelry retail.
IndependentsMay 15, 2024
David Mann Jewelers in Upstate NY to Close After 35 YearsOwner David Mann is heading into retirement.
FinancialsMay 15, 2024
Brilliant Earth’s Sales Fall Flat in Q1 While overall sales were sluggish, the retailer said its non-bridal fine jewelry was a popular choice for Valentine’s Day.
SourcingMay 14, 2024
Anglo American Confirms It Is Looking to Sell De Beers The mining giant also wants to offload its platinum business as part of an overhaul designed to “unlock significant value.”
AuctionsMay 14, 2024
2 Huge Yellow Diamonds Are Heading to AuctionChristie's is selling one of the diamonds, moving forward with its Geneva jewelry auction despite the cyberattack that took down its website.
MajorsMay 14, 2024
Platinum Born Taps ‘Born Leaders’ for New CampaignThe ad aims to position platinum jewelry as ideal for everyday wear.
GradingMay 14, 2024
Instappraise Adds Trifold Brochure to Appraisal OfferingsRetailers can customize and print the appraisal brochures from their store.
TechnologyMay 13, 2024
Christie’s Website Brought Down by Hackers, Watch Auction Postponed The site has been down since Thursday evening, just ahead of its spring auctions.
AuctionsMay 13, 2024
Madeleine Albright’s Jewelry, Pins a White-Glove Sale at Freeman’s | HindmanThe late former U.S. Secretary’s collection went for quadruple the sale’s pre-sale estimate.
IndependentsMay 13, 2024
Zachary’s Jewelers Names Mother’s Day Jewelry Contest WinnersThree fifth graders’ winning designs were turned into custom jewelry pieces in time for Mother’s Day.
IndependentsMay 10, 2024
Frank Adams Jewelers Names New CEOKimberly Adams Russell is taking over the role from her father, David Adams, marking the third generation to hold the title.
CollectionsMay 10, 2024
Piece of the Week: Carina Hardy’s ‘Birth of Venus’ NecklaceAs a token of womanhood, this necklace depicts when Venus was born from the sea.
MajorsMay 09, 2024
Watches of Switzerland Pays $130M for Roberto Coin Inc.The deal gives the retailer control over the distribution of Roberto Coin jewelry in the U.S., Canada, Caribbean, and Central America.
TrendsMay 09, 2024
Amanda’s Style File: Shine Bright, Moms Show your mother some love with a piece of fine jewelry.
IndependentsMay 09, 2024
Kyle Edward Fine Jewelry to Close Salisbury StoreThe company’s Easton location will remain open.
