EditorsNov 27, 2023
10 Tips for Selling Diamonds This Holiday SeasonSurveysNov 03, 2023
Here’s What NRF Is Forecasting for the Holiday Season
Sales will increase compared with last year, though the rate of growth is expected to slow.
The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to grow 3 to 4 percent year-over-year, according to its annual forecast, released Thursday.
Washington—The National Retail Federation is forecasting a merry and bright holiday season, though it predicts spending won’t grow as robustly as it has in recent years.
Holiday spending is expected to reach record levels in 2023, with year-over-year growth of 3 to 4 percent pushing the sales total to $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion, the organization announced during its annual holiday sales forecast media call.
The year-over-year growth rate is expected to be lower than in recent years, with 2022 holiday sales up 5 percent, 2021 sales up 13 percent, and 2020 sales up 9 percent.
However, the 2023 spending forecast is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6 percent from 2010 to 2019, said NRF, adding that trillions of dollars in stimulus sparked “unprecedented” rates of retail spending from 2020 to 2022.
NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and focuses on core retail, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay opened the holiday sales call on a positive note.
“In spite of the uncertainty of the economy and the challenges households are facing, we’ve seen strength and resilience across the consumer sector,” he said.
Consumers are grappling with inflation, rising interest rates, and higher gas prices, yet they’ve continued to spend.
“Consumer spending, which makes up approximately 70 percent of our economic activity, has kept the economic expansion on a steady and solid path forward,” said Shay.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted the rise in spending on services.
“For all that the consumer has kept the economy afloat, the composition of spending from goods to services will also define holiday sales trends,” he said in a press release.
“Service spending growth is strong and is growing faster than goods spending. The amount of spending on services is back in line with pre-pandemic trends.”
As for where consumers will shop, online will remain a popular option. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent to $273.7 billion to $278.8 billion, up from $255.8 billion last year.
To meet the holiday demand, retailers are expected to hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022.
As holiday shopping begins earlier, a trend in recent years, some of this hiring may have been pulled into October, noted NRF.
A recent NRF holiday survey found that 43 percent of holiday shoppers planned to make purchases before November.
Holiday spending is expected to reach record levels in 2023, with year-over-year growth of 3 to 4 percent pushing the sales total to $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion, the organization announced during its annual holiday sales forecast media call.
The year-over-year growth rate is expected to be lower than in recent years, with 2022 holiday sales up 5 percent, 2021 sales up 13 percent, and 2020 sales up 9 percent.
However, the 2023 spending forecast is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6 percent from 2010 to 2019, said NRF, adding that trillions of dollars in stimulus sparked “unprecedented” rates of retail spending from 2020 to 2022.
NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and focuses on core retail, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay opened the holiday sales call on a positive note.
“In spite of the uncertainty of the economy and the challenges households are facing, we’ve seen strength and resilience across the consumer sector,” he said.
Consumers are grappling with inflation, rising interest rates, and higher gas prices, yet they’ve continued to spend.
“Consumer spending, which makes up approximately 70 percent of our economic activity, has kept the economic expansion on a steady and solid path forward,” said Shay.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted the rise in spending on services.
“For all that the consumer has kept the economy afloat, the composition of spending from goods to services will also define holiday sales trends,” he said in a press release.
“Service spending growth is strong and is growing faster than goods spending. The amount of spending on services is back in line with pre-pandemic trends.”
As for where consumers will shop, online will remain a popular option. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent to $273.7 billion to $278.8 billion, up from $255.8 billion last year.
To meet the holiday demand, retailers are expected to hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022.
As holiday shopping begins earlier, a trend in recent years, some of this hiring may have been pulled into October, noted NRF.
A recent NRF holiday survey found that 43 percent of holiday shoppers planned to make purchases before November.
“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”— Matthew Shay, National Retail Federation
During the call, Shay and Kleinhenz also shed light on why consumer spending is up despite the fact that consumer confidence is down.
“This disconnect has been going on all year where consumer confidence and sentiment have been at very low levels that don’t seem consistent with what consumers are doing,” said Kleinhenz.
Though consumers are still positive about their household finances and job security, he said, inflation is taking its toll on their outlooks.
“We were in a period of time for almost 10 years where there was zero inflation. I think there are many households, probably young households, that have no recollection of what it was like.”
He also added that people’s political views can inform how they view the economy’s performance.
If, for example, the party you identify with is in power, you may view the economy more favorably, while those in the opposing party may take a more negative view.
Shay echoed Kleinhenz’s take on the impact of inflation.
“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”
He said consumers still will go out and spend money if they have jobs and receive pay increases.
“As long as the job market is as strong as it is, the actions are going to continue to power the economy,” said Shay.
Though some headwinds retailers and shoppers alike can foresee, there may be some “unpredictable impacts” from winter weather on the way.
“This year, holiday retail spending may experience residual effects from El Niño, depending on the strength and persistence of the weather phenomena,” NRF noted.
NRF will conduct a separate survey about the holiday weekend forecast that will include Black Friday sales predictions.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
Supplier BulletinMay 08, 2024
Fusing Past and Present at the Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch ShowSponsored by the Las Vegas Antique Jewelry and Watch Show
EditorsMay 07, 2024
Q&A: Author Vikki Tobak on the ‘Ice-Cold’ ExhibitionTobak, author of “Ice Cold: A Hip-Hop Jewelry History,” shares how the exhibition came to be, and the pieces people may be surprised to see.
EditorsMay 07, 2024
10 On-Theme Looks from the 2024 Met GalaStars adorned themselves in emeralds, platinum, and myriad bird motifs, writes Associate Editor Natalie Francisco.
Brought to you by
From Registration to Return: 10 Tips to Protect You Before, During and After a TradeshowTradeshow risks are real. Get tips to protect yourself before, during and after and gain safety and security awareness for your business.
IndependentsMay 07, 2024
112-Year-Old New Orleans Business Popping Up in Aspen M.S. Rau is set to open a seasonal gallery in the high-end resort town early next month.
Weekly QuizMay 02, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these seven questions.
MajorsMay 07, 2024
Richemont Acquires Italian Jeweler VhernierThe branded jewelry market is thriving, said Richemont Chairman Johann Rupert.
CollectionsMay 07, 2024
These ‘Luminaries’ Are Set to Light Up CoutureThe six designers, all participants in the show’s Diversity Action Council mentorship program, will exhibit in Salon 634.
Brought to you by
Rio’s Reimagined Podcast: For the Love of JewelersMeet Ben Claus—grand prize winner of For the Love of Jewelers 2023 Fall Design Challenge.
AuctionsMay 07, 2024
Sotheby’s to Auction Sylvester Stallone’s WatchesThe highlight of his collection is the coveted Patek Philippe Grandmaster Chime, which could sell for up to $5 million.
CollectionsMay 07, 2024
Phillip Gavriel Pays Tribute to Venice With New CollectionThe “Venetian Link” series modernizes the classic Veneziana box chain in its bracelets and necklaces.
Events & AwardsMay 07, 2024
JA Now Accepting Applications for New Bench Jeweler ScholarshipThe Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship will provide tuition assistance to two low-income students.
Policies & IssuesMay 06, 2024
Rolex Files Objection to Hallmark’s New Trademark ApplicationThe Swiss watchmaker said the company’s plans to use a new version of the Hallmark crown on jewelry would confuse consumers.
EditorsMay 06, 2024
Q&A: 8 Questions With Anglo American’s Benny Oeyen The executive talked about the importance of self-purchasers and how fuel cell electric vehicles are going to fuel demand for platinum.
MajorsMay 06, 2024
Malabar Gold & Diamonds Opens 4th U.S. ShowroomThe Indian jeweler’s new store in Naperville, Illinois marks its 350th location, part of its ongoing global expansion plans.
Events & AwardsMay 06, 2024
Ben Bridge Jeweler Accepting Applications for Lonia Tate ScholarshipIt will award a graduating high school student with about $10,000 toward a GIA diploma and an internship with the Seattle-based jeweler.
CrimeMay 03, 2024
Second Suspect Arrested in Murder of Colorado JewelerWheat Ridge, Colorado police took a 50-year-old man into custody Wednesday following a two-month search.
CollectionsMay 03, 2024
A Sneak Peek Into PGI’s Couture Platinum Spotlight ProgramPGI partnered with four new and seven returning designers for its annual platinum capsule collection.
MajorsMay 03, 2024
Kristie Nicolosi Joins WJA Board AgainNicolosi, president and CEO of The Kingswood Company, previously sat on WJA’s board from 2011 to 2018.
CollectionsMay 03, 2024
Piece of the Week: A “Bit of LUV” for the DerbyKarina Brez’s race-ready piece is a sophisticated nod to the horse-rider relationship.
CrimeMay 02, 2024
4 Indicted in Burglary Ring Targeting Indian, South Asian FamiliesThe men are allegedly responsible for stealing millions in jewelry and other valuables in 43 burglaries in 25 towns across Massachusetts.
CollectionsMay 02, 2024
Foundrae Launches ‘Horizon’ Collection“Horizon” invites individuals to explore the limitless possibilities that lie ahead, said the brand.
FinancialsMay 02, 2024
Pandora Raises Guidance After Strong Q1The jeweler credits its recent “Be Love” campaign and ongoing brand revamp for its 17 percent jump in sales.
IndependentsMay 02, 2024
Oklahoma Jeweler Glenn Lewis Dies at 68The co-founder of Lewis Jewelers was also the longtime mayor of the city of Moore.
AuctionsMay 02, 2024
Vintage Baume & Mercier With Ties to Elvis Sells for $7K Elvis Presley gifted this circa 1967 gold and diamond watch to Dodie Marshall, his co-star in “Easy Come, Easy Go.”
TrendsMay 01, 2024
Amanda’s Style File: All Eyes on EmeraldsMay’s birthstone is beloved for its rich green hue and its versatility.
SourcingMay 01, 2024
Opsydia Names New Sales and Marketing Director Jacqui Larsson joins Opsydia with nearly two decades of experience in the industry.
