Surveys

Gold Price Expected to Continue to Climb in 2020

SurveysOct 16, 2019

Gold Price Expected to Continue to Climb in 2020

The latest Reuters poll has the metal averaging more than $1,400/oz. next year, while some analysts predict the spot price could hit $2,000.

2019_Gold-bars-on-gray.jpg
The price of gold is expected to average $1,425/oz. next year, up from $1,360 this year, the latest Reuters poll shows. (Photo courtesy of United Precious Metals)

New York—Gold is expected to average more than $1,400/oz. next year, up from $1,360 this year, a recent Reuters poll shows.

Reuters publishes a precious metals price poll every quarter, combining predictions from two dozen or more analysts.

In the latest poll, done at the beginning of September, analysts predicted gold would average $1,393/oz. in the third quarter, $1,416 in the fourth quarter and $1,360 for the entire year.

The 2020 average for gold is forecast to rise to $1,425/oz.

The Reuters poll represents averages, not the actual price gold hits at any point during the day, and includes predictions from more than 30 participants, which is why it is less bullish than the note released by Citi analysts in mid-September, which predicted spot gold prices could top $2,000 an ounce in the next year or two.

Still, both sources point toward the gold price going up.

Unlike other metals, which are tied to market fundamentals such as supply and demand, gold is “very responsive” to certain macro-economic developments, said Johann Wiebe, a lead metals analyst on the GFMS team at Refinitiv.

Currently, those include the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

“People are uncertain; that’s why the gold price goes up,” he said, noting the best example of gold prices reacting to macro-economic conditions was when it skyrocketed during the 2008 financial crisis, as investors lined up to buy gold investment bars and coins amid the global financial meltdown.

In the jewelry industry, the high price of gold led retailers to push buyback programs while swapping out gold for silver in display cases.

While Wiebe recognizes there is a lot of uncertainty in the world right now, he said Refinitiv is more modest in its exact forecast for gold and will need to see economic factors take a firmer hold before it predicts gold will breach $2,000 an ounce.

Platinum and Palladium Prices
Wiebe said platinum will remain less expensive than gold for the foreseeable future, though the Reuters poll has the white metal’s price rising next year too.

In the third quarter, the poll has platinum averaging $858/oz. and climbing to $880 in the fourth quarter, finishing the year with an average of $851.

In 2020, the poll has the average platinum price at $926/oz.

Analysts are also bullish on palladium.

Ten years ago, the white metal averaged around $300/oz., data supplied by Refinitiv shows (see chart below).




Today, the price of palladium is well over $1,000/oz. due to strong auto catalyst demand driven by tighter emissions legislation in all major markets and the route toward the widespread adoption of electric vehicles going through hybrids (palladium is used to cut pollution from gasoline engines and is used in hybrid vehicles too).

Supply is just not high enough, Wiebe said, and the market is in repeated, severe deficit.

In the Reuters poll, analysts predicted palladium will average $1,478 in the third quarter and $1,465 in the fourth, finishing the year at $1,448/oz. The predicted average for 2020 is only slightly lower, at $1,444.

Silver Shadows
The price of silver is expected to mirror that of gold in the near term, rising in the fourth quarter and again next year.

The Reuters poll has silver averaging $15.79 an ounce in the third quarter before increasing to $16.13 in the fourth. The metal’s average for 2019 is expected to land at $15.59.

Next year, the price of silver is expected to increase to an average of $16.73.
Michelle Graffis the editor-in-chief at National Jeweler, directing the publication’s coverage both online and in print.

The Latest

Vikki Tobak
EditorsMay 07, 2024
Q&A: Author Vikki Tobak on the ‘Ice-Cold’ Exhibition

Tobak, author of “Ice Cold: A Hip-Hop Jewelry History,” shares how the exhibition came to be, and the pieces people may be surprised to see.

Cynthia Erivo, Zendaya, Lewis Hamilton at the Met Gala
EditorsMay 07, 2024
10 On-Theme Looks from the 2024 Met Gala

Stars adorned themselves in emeralds, platinum, and myriad bird motifs, writes Associate Editor Natalie Francisco.

Rendering of M.S. Rau pop-up shop in Aspen, Colorado
IndependentsMay 07, 2024
112-Year-Old New Orleans Business Popping Up in Aspen

M.S. Rau is set to open a seasonal gallery in the high-end resort town early next month.

Header image w logo.jpg
Brought to you by
From Registration to Return: 10 Tips to Protect You Before, During and After a Tradeshow

Tradeshow risks are real. Get tips to protect yourself before, during and after and gain safety and security awareness for your business.

Vhernier Calla necklace rose gold and ebony
MajorsMay 07, 2024
Richemont Acquires Italian Jeweler Vhernier

The branded jewelry market is thriving, said Richemont Chairman Johann Rupert.

Weekly QuizMay 02, 2024
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these seven questions.
Take the Quiz
The six Couture Luminaries designers 2024
CollectionsMay 07, 2024
These ‘Luminaries’ Are Set to Light Up Couture

The six designers, all participants in the show’s Diversity Action Council mentorship program, will exhibit in Salon 634.

Sylvester Stallone watch auction
AuctionsMay 07, 2024
Sotheby’s to Auction Sylvester Stallone’s Watches

The highlight of his collection is the coveted Patek Philippe Grandmaster Chime, which could sell for up to $5 million.

national-jeweler-top-image-v1.jpg
Brought to you by
Rio’s Reimagined Podcast: For the Love of Jewelers

Meet Ben Claus—grand prize winner of For the Love of Jewelers 2023 Fall Design Challenge.

Models Wearing Venetian Link Bracelets and Necklaces
CollectionsMay 07, 2024
Phillip Gavriel Pays Tribute to Venice With New Collection

The “Venetian Link” series modernizes the classic Veneziana box chain in its bracelets and necklaces.

Jewelers of America logo
Events & AwardsMay 07, 2024
JA Now Accepting Applications for New Bench Jeweler Scholarship

The Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship will provide tuition assistance to two low-income students.

Rolex and Hallmark logos
Policies & IssuesMay 06, 2024
Rolex Files Objection to Hallmark’s New Trademark Application

The Swiss watchmaker said the company’s plans to use a new version of the Hallmark crown on jewelry would confuse consumers.

Anglo American executive Benny Oeyen
EditorsMay 06, 2024
Q&A: 8 Questions With Anglo American’s Benny Oeyen

The executive talked about the importance of self-purchasers and how fuel cell electric vehicles are going to fuel demand for platinum.

Opening of Malabar Gold & Diamonds store in Naperville Illinois
MajorsMay 06, 2024
Malabar Gold & Diamonds Opens 4th U.S. Showroom

The Indian jeweler’s new store in Naperville, Illinois marks its 350th location, part of its ongoing global expansion plans.

Ben Bridge Jeweler Logo
Events & AwardsMay 06, 2024
Ben Bridge Jeweler Accepting Applications for Lonia Tate Scholarship

It will award a graduating high school student with about $10,000 toward a GIA diploma and an internship with the Seattle-based jeweler.

Mug shots of murder suspects Michael McCormack and Charles Robinson Shay
CrimeMay 03, 2024
Second Suspect Arrested in Murder of Colorado Jeweler

Wheat Ridge, Colorado police took a 50-year-old man into custody Wednesday following a two-month search.

Five Platinum Pieces
CollectionsMay 03, 2024
A Sneak Peek Into PGI’s Couture Platinum Spotlight Program

PGI partnered with four new and seven returning designers for its annual platinum capsule collection.

Kristie Nicolosi
MajorsMay 03, 2024
Kristie Nicolosi Joins WJA Board Again

Nicolosi, president and CEO of The Kingswood Company, previously sat on WJA’s board from 2011 to 2018.

Karina Brez Bit of LUV Bracelet
CollectionsMay 03, 2024
Piece of the Week: A “Bit of LUV” for the Derby

Karina Brez’s race-ready piece is a sophisticated nod to the horse-rider relationship.

Stock image of handcuffs and gavel
CrimeMay 02, 2024
4 Indicted in Burglary Ring Targeting Indian, South Asian Families

The men are allegedly responsible for stealing millions in jewelry and other valuables in 43 burglaries in 25 towns across Massachusetts.

Horizon Campaign Collage
CollectionsMay 02, 2024
Foundrae Launches ‘Horizon’ Collection

“Horizon” invites individuals to explore the limitless possibilities that lie ahead, said the brand.

Pandora jewelry
FinancialsMay 02, 2024
Pandora Raises Guidance After Strong Q1

The jeweler credits its recent “Be Love” campaign and ongoing brand revamp for its 17 percent jump in sales.

Glenn Lewis
IndependentsMay 02, 2024
Oklahoma Jeweler Glenn Lewis Dies at 68

The co-founder of Lewis Jewelers was also the longtime mayor of the city of Moore.

The back of the Baume & Mercier watch Elvis gave to Dodie Marshall
AuctionsMay 02, 2024
Vintage Baume & Mercier With Ties to Elvis Sells for $7K

Elvis Presley gifted this circa 1967 gold and diamond watch to Dodie Marshall, his co-star in “Easy Come, Easy Go.”

Harwell Godfrey
IndependentsMay 01, 2024
Harwell Godfrey Opens First Store

It is located in Marin County, California.

Syna emerald earrings
TrendsMay 01, 2024
Amanda’s Style File: All Eyes on Emeralds

May’s birthstone is beloved for its rich green hue and its versatility.

Jacqui Larsson Looking at a Diamond
SourcingMay 01, 2024
Opsydia Names New Sales and Marketing Director

Jacqui Larsson joins Opsydia with nearly two decades of experience in the industry.

Stock image crime handcuffs
CrimeMay 01, 2024
Grand Jury to Hear Case Against Jeweler Charged in Fatal Shove Following IJO Show

Last month in Dallas, David Walton pushed another jeweler, David Ettinger, who later died.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy