Wheat Ridge, Colorado police took a 50-year-old man into custody Wednesday following a two-month search.
NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year
Low unemployment, growing wages and still-strong consumer confidence should provide momentum in the fourth quarter, even as the effects of tariffs loom.
New York—The National Retail Federation said Thursday it expects holiday retail sales to increase between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared with last year.
Consumer spending in November and December is expected to total between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion, excluding sales of automobiles, gas and at restaurants.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are forecast to increase between 11 and 14 percent to as much as $166.9 billion. This would be a substantial increase from $146.5 billion last year.
It’s a somewhat-bullish forecast the NRF backs up by pointing to an economy that is strong overall, though it recognizes that there are several factors that could still dampen the holiday season.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a conference call Thursday morning that the fundamentals underlying the economy are positive—low unemployment, growing wages and strong consumer confidence—and will provide momentum in the fourth quarter.
He also noted retail sales have been “very positive” this year, with the three-month moving average up 4.1 percent as of August, and sales the first eight months of the year up 3.6 percent.
The categories expected to do well this holiday season are those that historically do so: apparel, electronics, toys, and gift cards.
“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” Shay said.
“Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”
He added the strong consumer confidence they’ve seen could be “eroded” by those issues.
Tariffs are one of the biggest question marks heading into the holiday season, and their effect on spending, whether direct through prices or through consumer confidence, remains to be seen, the NRF said.
RELATED CONTENT: How Tariffs Will Impact the Jewelry IndustrySome merchandise, including jewelry, apparel, footwear and televisions, was subject to new tariffs that took effect Sept. 1, while other products were spared tariffs until Dec. 15.
Retailers are adopting myriad approaches to tackle the issue, and Shay said that while there isn’t one solution they’re finding, they all want to avoid passing costs on to consumers if they can.
“The vast majority of them still see running room and growth opportunity in this economy, and none want to jeopardize that and all are hoping that we’re going to find a constructive
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
The Latest
PGI partnered with four new and seven returning designers for its annual platinum capsule collection.
Nicolosi, president and CEO of The Kingswood Company, previously sat on WJA’s board from 2011 to 2018.
Meet Ben Claus—grand prize winner of For the Love of Jewelers 2023 Fall Design Challenge.
Karina Brez’s race-ready piece is a sophisticated nod to the horse-rider relationship.
The men are allegedly responsible for stealing millions in jewelry and other valuables in 43 burglaries in 25 towns across Massachusetts.
“Horizon” invites individuals to explore the limitless possibilities that lie ahead, said the brand.
With Ho Brothers, you can unlock your brand's true potential and offer customers the personalized jewelry experiences they desire.
The jeweler credits its recent “Be Love” campaign and ongoing brand revamp for its 17 percent jump in sales.
Elvis Presley gifted this circa 1967 gold and diamond watch to Dodie Marshall, his co-star in “Easy Come, Easy Go.”
Concerns about rising prices, politics, and global conflicts continue to dampen consumer outlook.
May’s birthstone is beloved for its rich green hue and its versatility.
Jacqui Larsson joins Opsydia with nearly two decades of experience in the industry.
Last month in Dallas, David Walton pushed another jeweler, David Ettinger, who later died.
The “Tiffany Céleste” collection reimagines designer Jean Schlumberger’s interpretations of the universe.
The brand also created a 100-carat lab-grown diamond necklace in honor of its centennial.
Tim Schlick has been promoted from his previous position as COO.
It’s the second year for the event, slated to take place in October in Toronto.
Supplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA
Sales will be paused while the relocation takes place over the next few months.
“SIS x MISA Denim and Diamonds” is a collaboration between the designer and celebrity stylist Misa Hylton.
The retailer is moving to a newly designed space in the same shopping center.
Gifts that are unique and thoughtful are top of mind this year, according to the annual survey.
The necklace is featured in the brand’s “Rebel Heart” campaign starring Adam Levine and Behati Prinsloo.
The two organizations will host a joint event, “Converge,” in September 2025.
Big changes appear to be on the horizon for the diamond miner and its parent company, Anglo American.
Padis succeeds Lisa Bridge, marking the first time the organization has had two women board presidents in a row.