AuctionsMay 16, 2024
Christie’s Holds 2 Sales Despite CyberattackThough its website has been down for a week, Christie’s proceeded with its jewelry and watch auctions on May 13-14, bringing in nearly $80 million.
MajorsMar 02, 2020
Price of Gold Expected to Stay High in 2020
The metal is predicted to average more than $1,500 in 2020, according to a recent Reuters poll.
Gold is expected to average $1,520 an ounce in the first quarter and $1,551 overall in 2020, a recent Reuters poll shows. (Photo courtesy of United Precious Metals)
New York—Gold is predicted to average more than $1,500 an ounce in 2020, according to a recent Reuters poll, up from the $1,393 it averaged last year.
According to a precious metals price poll conducted by Reuters and shared on Refinitiv’s Eikon platform, analysts predict gold will average $1,520 in the first quarter, $1,542 in the second quarter and $1,551 for the full year.
Reuters conducts its poll every quarter, combining predictions from two dozen or more analysts. It represents an average, rather than the actual price gold hits at any point during the day.
The gold price rose dramatically in the second half of 2019, jumping from an average of $1,283.95 in May to $1,498.80 in August.
It hovered somewhere around the $1,500 mark for the rest of the year, finishing with an average price of $1,476.04 in December, according to Kitco.
The gold price rose for several reasons last year, said Johann Wiebe, a lead metals analyst on the GFMS team at Refinitiv.
Negative bond yields encouraged an appetite for gold as an investment, he said.
Also impacting the gold price was general uncertainty in the U.S. economy stemming from macroeconomic developments, like the trade dispute between the United States and China.
To date in 2020, the price of gold has hit its highest level in seven years, peaking at $1,671.65 on Feb. 24.
While it’s come down slightly since then, the metal’s price is expected to remain elevated throughout the year.
Wiebe said concerns around coronavirus will keep gold prices aloft, adding that the spread of the disease has sparked discussion about “wide macroeconomic implications.”
Automobile sales in China, for example, have plunged in the past couple of months.
The disease will have ramifications on global economic growth, and the gold price will remain elevated because of that, Wiebe said.
The current correction in the stock market also is keeping gold prices high.
Ultimately, though, he said once a vaccine is found and restrictions on travel and public gatherings are lifted, the gold price is likely to drop considerably.
Platinum and Palladium Predictions
Platinum is predicted to remain significantly less expensive than gold this year, with the Reuters poll showing the white metal will average $938 an ounce in the first quarter, $962 in the second quarter and $979 for the year.
Wiebe said a declining demand for platinum jewelry in China is having a
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
big impact, as is the aforementioned decline in automotive demand in the country.
And, as there continues to be a move toward gasoline and electric cars, and away from diesel, platinum is coming under pressure. (Platinum is often used for catalytic converters in diesel cars.)
He noted on the supply side, producers in South Africa are making efforts to consolidate production.
However, because rhodium and palladium—both of which are doing “so incredibly well,” with prices skyrocketing—are often byproducts of platinum production, there still are some miners indicating they will continue producing and stockpiling platinum.
So, supply will stay elevated or possibly increase this year, Wiebe said, “even though it should be moving in the other direction to support prices,” while demand is expected to increase, albeit slowly.
This means, he said, there is some upside for platinum prices but “not a huge amount.”
Palladium, meanwhile, has been performing well and has been the “darling” of the industry for some years now, Wiebe said.
As emissions regulations across the world tighten, palladium demand will increase because of its use in gasoline vehicles.
The decline in car sales in China could bring the price of palladium down a bit too, but since supply won’t increase much in the next two years or so, prices for the metal will remain elevated, Wiebe said.
The Reuters poll predicts it will average $2,056 this year.
Silver Softness
The Reuters poll has silver averaging $18.45 an ounce in 2020, up from $16.21 in 2019.
While silver generally follows the gold price trend, Wiebe said when looking at the gold/silver ratio—the amount of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold—silver has been lagging for a few years now.
It’s currently at 95.50 as of Monday morning, according to GoldPrice.com. (Historically, it’s usually somewhere around 65 or 70, according to Wiebe.)
“I think we’re still a bit high,” he said. “I think silver is still cheap where gold’s expensive, so silver still has some potential catch-up to do there.”
But, he added, there’s a lot of silver in the market right now, which “keeps a lid on the opportunity for silver to significantly move.”
And, as there continues to be a move toward gasoline and electric cars, and away from diesel, platinum is coming under pressure. (Platinum is often used for catalytic converters in diesel cars.)
He noted on the supply side, producers in South Africa are making efforts to consolidate production.
However, because rhodium and palladium—both of which are doing “so incredibly well,” with prices skyrocketing—are often byproducts of platinum production, there still are some miners indicating they will continue producing and stockpiling platinum.
So, supply will stay elevated or possibly increase this year, Wiebe said, “even though it should be moving in the other direction to support prices,” while demand is expected to increase, albeit slowly.
This means, he said, there is some upside for platinum prices but “not a huge amount.”
Palladium, meanwhile, has been performing well and has been the “darling” of the industry for some years now, Wiebe said.
As emissions regulations across the world tighten, palladium demand will increase because of its use in gasoline vehicles.
The decline in car sales in China could bring the price of palladium down a bit too, but since supply won’t increase much in the next two years or so, prices for the metal will remain elevated, Wiebe said.
The Reuters poll predicts it will average $2,056 this year.
Silver Softness
The Reuters poll has silver averaging $18.45 an ounce in 2020, up from $16.21 in 2019.
While silver generally follows the gold price trend, Wiebe said when looking at the gold/silver ratio—the amount of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold—silver has been lagging for a few years now.
It’s currently at 95.50 as of Monday morning, according to GoldPrice.com. (Historically, it’s usually somewhere around 65 or 70, according to Wiebe.)
“I think we’re still a bit high,” he said. “I think silver is still cheap where gold’s expensive, so silver still has some potential catch-up to do there.”
But, he added, there’s a lot of silver in the market right now, which “keeps a lid on the opportunity for silver to significantly move.”
More on Majors
The Latest
AuctionsMay 16, 2024
Sotheby’s Withdraws 101-Carat Yellow Diamond from AuctionDespite the absence of “The Allnatt,” Sotheby’s Geneva jewelry auction totaled $34 million, with 90 percent of lots sold.
ColumnistsMay 16, 2024
The PR Adviser: What the Designer Should’ve DoneLilian Raji gives advice to designers on how to make the most of great publicity opportunities.
Brought to you by
Record Gold Prices Have Consumers Undeterred. Here’s Why.Despite the rising prices, consumers continue to seek out the precious metal.
SourcingMay 16, 2024
Lucapa to Shed Stake in Lesotho Diamond Mine The mining company wants to divest its 70 percent holding in the Mothae Diamond Mine in an effort to streamline its portfolio.
Weekly QuizMay 16, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these seven questions.
ColumnistsMay 15, 2024
Squirrel Spotting: Why Retailers Struggle to Fire BrandsWhy do so many jewelers keep lines that are not selling? Peter Smith thinks the answer lies in these two behavioral principles.
AuctionsMay 15, 2024
Red Diamond Breaks Records at Phillips GenevaThe “Argyle Phoenix” sold for more than $4 million at the auction house’s second jewels sale.
Brought to you by
From Registration to Return: 10 Tips to Protect You Before, During and After a TradeshowTradeshow risks are real. Get tips to protect yourself before, during and after and gain safety and security awareness for your business.
Events & AwardsMay 15, 2024
See Who’s in JA’s 2024 ‘20 Under 40’ ClassThe annual list recognizes young professionals making an impact in jewelry retail.
IndependentsMay 15, 2024
David Mann Jewelers in Upstate NY to Close After 35 YearsOwner David Mann is heading into retirement.
FinancialsMay 15, 2024
Brilliant Earth’s Sales Fall Flat in Q1 While overall sales were sluggish, the retailer said its non-bridal fine jewelry was a popular choice for Valentine’s Day.
SourcingMay 14, 2024
Anglo American Confirms It Is Looking to Sell De Beers The mining giant also wants to offload its platinum business as part of an overhaul designed to “unlock significant value.”
AuctionsMay 14, 2024
2 Huge Yellow Diamonds Are Heading to AuctionChristie's is selling one of the diamonds, moving forward with its Geneva jewelry auction despite the cyberattack that took down its website.
GradingMay 14, 2024
Instappraise Adds Trifold Brochure to Appraisal OfferingsRetailers can customize and print the appraisal brochures from their store.
Lab-GrownMay 13, 2024
Lab-Grown Diamond Brand Lightbox Cuts Prices by 25 to 40%The move follows a price-drop test run in Q4 and comes with the addition of a “quality assurance card” from GIA for some loose diamonds.
TechnologyMay 13, 2024
Christie’s Website Brought Down by Hackers, Watch Auction Postponed The site has been down since Thursday evening, just ahead of its spring auctions.
AuctionsMay 13, 2024
Madeleine Albright’s Jewelry, Pins a White-Glove Sale at Freeman’s | HindmanThe late former U.S. Secretary’s collection went for quadruple the sale’s pre-sale estimate.
IndependentsMay 13, 2024
Zachary’s Jewelers Names Mother’s Day Jewelry Contest WinnersThree fifth graders’ winning designs were turned into custom jewelry pieces in time for Mother’s Day.
IndependentsMay 10, 2024
Frank Adams Jewelers Names New CEOKimberly Adams Russell is taking over the role from her father, David Adams, marking the third generation to hold the title.
CollectionsMay 10, 2024
Piece of the Week: Carina Hardy’s ‘Birth of Venus’ NecklaceAs a token of womanhood, this necklace depicts when Venus was born from the sea.
TrendsMay 09, 2024
Amanda’s Style File: Shine Bright, Moms Show your mother some love with a piece of fine jewelry.
IndependentsMay 09, 2024
Kyle Edward Fine Jewelry to Close Salisbury StoreThe company’s Easton location will remain open.
MajorsMay 09, 2024
JBT Elects New ChairmanBrian D. Fleming of Carla Corporation was elected to serve a one-year term in the role.
Supplier BulletinMay 08, 2024
Fusing Past and Present at the Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch ShowSponsored by the Las Vegas Antique Jewelry and Watch Show
EditorsMay 07, 2024
Q&A: Author Vikki Tobak on the ‘Ice-Cold’ ExhibitionTobak, author of “Ice Cold: A Hip-Hop Jewelry History,” shares how the exhibition came to be, and the pieces people may be surprised to see.
EditorsMay 07, 2024
10 On-Theme Looks from the 2024 Met GalaStars adorned themselves in emeralds, platinum, and myriad bird motifs, writes Associate Editor Natalie Francisco.
IndependentsMay 07, 2024
112-Year-Old New Orleans Business Popping Up in Aspen M.S. Rau is set to open a seasonal gallery in the high-end resort town early next month.
