SurveysFeb 24, 2022
Consumer Confidence Slips in February Amid InflationSurveysMar 17, 2022
NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices
Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.
The National Retail Federation predicted retail sales could grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
New York—The National Retail Federation is predicting a strong year for retail but remains wary of the potential impacts of COVID-19, rising inflation, and international tensions.
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
Related stories will be right here …
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent.
Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.
“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release.
Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.
Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”
“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.
“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos
Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.
“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.
The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.
Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.
Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.
The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.
The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
ColumnistsApr 09, 2026
Jewelry Demand Isn’t Stronger, Prices Are Just Higher Jewelers who misinterpret the state of the jewelry market risk employing the wrong retail strategy, cautions columnist Sherry Smith.
MajorsApr 09, 2026
Tiffany & Co. Promotes Nathalie Verdeille to SVP, Chief Artistic OfficerIn her newly expanded role, she will continue to oversee the jewelry category, as well as watches, home, and accessories.
WatchesApr 09, 2026
Jacob & Co. Rolls Out Its Sequel to ‘The Godfather’ Musical Watch“The Godfather II” watch plays two melodies from the mob film’s score, “The Godfather’s Waltz” and “The Godfather Love Theme.”
Brought to you by
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessYou deserve to know what you are selling–to protect your customers as well as your business and your reputation.
Events & AwardsApr 09, 2026
JCK Announces Jesse Itzler as 2026 Keynote SpeakerOrganizers have also introduced the new JCK Talks Signature Series, as well as an offering of watch-focused workshops and lectures.
Weekly QuizApr 09, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingApr 09, 2026
AGA To Honor ‘Quiet Leadership’ With New AwardThe Alan Hodgkinson Medal recognizes gemologists who are consistently generous with their time and expertise.
WatchesApr 09, 2026
Oris Names New CEO, CFOThe Swiss watchmaker is changing up its executive leadership team as part of a restructuring.
Brought to you by
Is This You? Every Jeweler Has This Problem; We Have the Solution.Every jeweler faces the same challenge: helping customers protect what they love. Here’s the solution designed for today’s jewelry business.
CollectionsApr 08, 2026
Hearts On Fire Celebrates 30 Years By Asking a QuestionThe “What’s Your Signature?” campaign invites women to think about how they see themselves.
SourcingApr 08, 2026
Sale of 42-Carat Blue Diamond Gives Petra a Boost in Q3The big diamond’s sale added to the company’s revenue though the market remains “challenging” overall, particularly for smaller goods.
Events & AwardsApr 08, 2026
AGS Confluence Returns with AI, Sustainability SessionsRob Bates of The Jewelry Wire will also moderate a panel on the state of the jewelry industry during the virtual event.
Events & AwardsApr 08, 2026
TJS to Honor 2 Longtime Former Stuller EmployeesThe Jewelry Symposium will honor two industry veterans with lifetime achievement awards at its upcoming May event.
TrendsApr 08, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: April’s Brilliant Birthstone With their durability, brilliance, and beauty, diamonds are the perfect stone for everyday birthstone jewelry.
MajorsApr 07, 2026
QVC Group’s Latest Filing Calls Its Future Into QuestionThe retailer failed to file its annual report on time and said it may issue a going concern warning.
ColumnistsApr 07, 2026
Peter Smith: A Tip to the Post Office on Workplace CultureSmith recounts a recent trip to the post office that included an uncomfortable, embarrassing, and public exchange between two employees.
GradingApr 07, 2026
GIA CFO David Tearle to Retire in June John Cowley, who has more than 30 years of experience, is succeeding Tearle as the lab’s chief financial officer.
CollectionsApr 07, 2026
Nerd Out Over Gemology Geek’s First Jewelry CollectionFounder Erica Silverglide has designed 35 colorful pieces set with fluorescing gemstones for the brand's first finished jewelry offering.
CollectionsApr 07, 2026
Ukrainian Jewelers Highlighted In New Book“Ukrainian Jewelry | Contemporary Jewelry and Art Jewelry from Ukraine” features 33 contemporary Ukrainian designers and studios.
CollectionsApr 06, 2026
Fope’s New Jewelry Debuts Are Golden“The Golden Now” campaign celebrates the here and now with the brand’s signature styles and a selection of its new pieces.
MajorsApr 06, 2026
Kecia Caffie, Corinne Bentzen No Longer With Signet JewelersSignet confirmed that Caffie, president of Zales and Banter, and Bentzen, who headed Blue Nile, have left the company.
CollectionsApr 06, 2026
Historian Tanzy Ward Pens Book on Black Victorians’ JewelryThe antique jewelry dealer talks about the importance of including Black Americans in jewelry history and preserving their stories.
SourcingApr 06, 2026
Gemfields Reports $51M Loss in 2025Both its mines faced challenges last year, from operational issues to disruptions in the market.
CollectionsApr 03, 2026
Taylor Swift’s ‘Elizabeth Taylor’ Video Puts Jewelry Front and CenterIconic pieces, like the Mike Todd Diamond Tiara, appear in the superstar’s new music video for her song inspired by the actress.
MajorsApr 03, 2026
Saks Global Says It Will Emerge From Bankruptcy This SummerThe luxury retailer, which went Chapter 11 in January, announced Thursday that it has secured $500 million in exit financing.
Events & AwardsApr 03, 2026
JCK Luxury, NouvelleBox Partner on New Designer BallroomThe NouvelleBox ballroom will feature independent jewelry designers, including Lene Vibe, Wyld Box Jewelry, and Kiaia Limited.
CollectionsApr 03, 2026
Buddha Mama Brings Its ‘Moon’ Locket To DallasThe one-of-a-kind locket, our Piece of the Week, opens to reveal three hidden images to keep close to your heart.
MajorsApr 02, 2026
Pandora Opens New Canadian Distribution Center Amid Tariff ConcernsThe new facility was also designed to better serve its growing customer base in Canada.
