SurveysFeb 24, 2022
Consumer Confidence Slips in February Amid InflationSurveysMar 17, 2022
NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices
Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.
The National Retail Federation predicted retail sales could grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
New York—The National Retail Federation is predicting a strong year for retail but remains wary of the potential impacts of COVID-19, rising inflation, and international tensions.
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
Related stories will be right here …
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent.
Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.
“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release.
Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.
Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”
“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.
“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos
Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.
“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.
The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.
Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.
Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.
The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.
The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.
More on Surveys
The Latest
EditorsSep 03, 2026
Q&A: Simon G.’s CEO on Why He Won’t Use AI for Jewelry DesignZaven Ghanimian discussed the value of human craftsmanship and where the implementation of artificial intelligence does work.
Events & AwardsSep 03, 2026
Here Are the First Recipients of Nina Pugliese Memorial Scholarship Jewelers of America also revealed the recipients of the Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship and its own scholarship programs.
WatchesSep 03, 2026
Robert Pattinson Joins Jaeger-LeCoultre as Brand AmbassadorThe British actor, known for his roles in “Twilight” and “The Odyssey,” will star in a campaign for the Master Control Chronometre.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
CollectionsSep 03, 2026
Sydney Evan Celebrates 25 Years With 4 New CollectionsThe “Confetti Disco,” “Champagne Cheers,” “Tuxedo,” and “Classic Punk” jewelry collections each capture a distinct spirit of celebration.
Weekly QuizAug 27, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CrimeSep 02, 2026
CA Jeweler Gets 5 Years in ‘Phantom Rolex’ Ponzi SchemeNelson Holdo of Newport Beach pleaded guilty to multiple counts of felony grand theft and writing bad checks and was sentenced Monday.
AuctionsSep 02, 2026
If You Love Cats, This Jewelry Auction Is for YouCat ladies of the jewelry world, unite. Sandy Lerner’s “significant” collection of cat jewelry and other objects is going up for auction.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
MajorsSep 02, 2026
Messika Names Former Omega Exec as New President, CEO of AmericasArnaud Michon, the former Omega USA President, will now lead Messika’s Americas region during its international development.
Events & AwardsSep 02, 2026
Emerald’s New Owner Introduces ‘Glitter in the Grove’The branding references the back-to-back jewelry shows that new parent company Forge will host in Miami's Coconut Grove this November.
AuctionsSep 01, 2026
UK Woman Uncovers Rare Patek Philippe Watch in Mom’s Jewelry BoxThe stainless steel Patek Philippe “Calatrava” watch from the 1930s sold for nearly $80,000 at a recent Hansons Cornwall auction.
ColumnistsSep 01, 2026
Your Jewelry Marketing Has a Bridal ProblemEngagement rings are important but don’t ignore the customers who are buying jewelry “just because,” Emmanuel Raheb writes.
MajorsSep 01, 2026
Kering Names New Pomellato, DoDo CEOsFormer Pomellato CEO Sabina Belli has been named president of Kering Italia amid a shakeup of Kering's new Jewelry division.
MajorsSep 01, 2026
Anne Marie Shulman Joins GPA GlobalThe veteran luxury packaging executive was appointed to help the company grow its North American business.
CrimeAug 31, 2026
$4M Van Cleef & Arpels Diamond Necklace Snatched From Vienna Museum Once the property of an Egyptian queen, the necklace was part of a larger exhibition of VCA jewelry at the Museum of Applied Arts (MAK).
GradingAug 31, 2026
GIA, Gübelin Gem Lab Confirm New Paraíba Tourmaline Deposit in EthiopiaThe labs’ separate investigations each determined that the East African country is producing copper-bearing tourmaline.
Events & AwardsAug 31, 2026
Wisconsin Museum to Host Jewelry Exhibition“Chicago Collects: Jewelry in Perspective” at the Oshkosh Public Museum will feature works by Fabergé, Lalique, and Louis Comfort Tiffany.
CollectionsAug 31, 2026
Catbird Launches First Men’s Jewelry CollectionThe “Worn Well” collection is Catbird's take on classic men's jewelry.
CollectionsAug 28, 2026
Dolly Parton Would Have Loved This Butterfly Necklace This Buddha Mama butterfly is our Piece of the Week honoring the legend, who embraced the beautiful insect as her symbol.
SourcingAug 28, 2026
Gareth Penny to Give Opening Speech at CIBJO Centenary CongressThe former De Beers CEO, and perhaps its next owner, will be a featured speaker at the event, slated for Sept. 4-7 in Italy.
IndependentsAug 28, 2026
Day’s Jewelers Honored With 3 Workplace AwardsThe employee-owned jeweler was named a “Best Place to Work” in Maine, New Hampshire, and for women.
CollectionsAug 27, 2026
Pandora Expands ‘Talisman’ Collection as Lawsuit Continues The second iteration of the jewelry collection was inspired by the zodiac and the four elements: earth, water, air and fire.
SourcingAug 27, 2026
OFAC Renews License Allowing Import of ‘Grandfathered’ Russian Diamonds General License 104B supersedes General License 104A, which was set to expire on Sept. 1.
CrimeAug 27, 2026
Customs Seizes Nearly 900 Pieces of Counterfeit JewelryThe package, intercepted in Indianapolis, contained fake Cartier, Tiffany & Co., and Van Cleef and Arpels jewelry.
IndependentsAug 27, 2026
Jessica McCormack to Open First West Coast StoreThe new location in Costa Mesa, California, marks the brand’s second store in the United States and fourth standalone location worldwide.
FinancialsAug 27, 2026
Movado’s Q2 Sales Up As Younger Consumers Take Interest in WatchesThe fashion watch category was once threatened by the Apple Watch, but consumers are now opting for new wearables, said Movado’s CEO.
Lab-GrownAug 26, 2026
AGTA Now Requiring Members to Call Lab-Grown Gems ‘Synthetic’The association added the requirement to its revised "Code of Ethics" and released the 17th edition of its “Gemstone Information Manual.”
