SurveysOct 06, 2022
5 Things to Know about Holiday Shoppers This SeasonSurveysNov 04, 2022
Holiday Sales to See Slowed Growth, Says NRF
Plus, how inflation and winter weather could impact holiday spending.
The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday retail sales will grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Washington—Retailers can expect a merry holiday season this year, but sales won’t reach the highs of last year.
The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast Thursday and is expecting retail sales to grow between 6 to 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Last year, holiday retail sales were up nearly 14 percent year-over-year to a record-breaking $889.3 billion.
Over the past 10 years, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 5 percent, said the NRF, with the pandemic spending of recent years accounting for “considerable” gains.
Here are five key takeaways from the NRF’s holiday forecast.
Inflation remains a top concern for holiday shoppers.
The Federal Reserve is continuing its fight against inflation, raising interest rates six times this year, but rising prices are still weighing on consumers.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay described consumer behavior as more thoughtful and cautious during a forecast call Thursday.
“We know that lower- and middle-income consumers are feeling the most pressure when it comes to inflation,” said Shay, noting more of their income is going to housing, rent, energy, and food costs, leaving less for gifts and other holiday expenses.
These households are expected to rely more on their savings and credit to purchase holiday gifts.
In contrast, higher income households are expected to spend significantly more on average on holiday gifts, seasonal items, and other retail categories.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Consumers are worried about inflation. It’s on the top of their minds.”
A recent KPMG holiday survey came to the same conclusion, finding that inflation topped the list of shopper concerns, with 85 percent of those surveyed saying they were at least somewhat concerned about inflation.
“But they still have the ability to spend,” Kleinhenz added, noting consumers are supported by job growth, rising wages, and the ability to tap into savings.
The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast Thursday and is expecting retail sales to grow between 6 to 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Last year, holiday retail sales were up nearly 14 percent year-over-year to a record-breaking $889.3 billion.
Over the past 10 years, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 5 percent, said the NRF, with the pandemic spending of recent years accounting for “considerable” gains.
Here are five key takeaways from the NRF’s holiday forecast.
Inflation remains a top concern for holiday shoppers.
The Federal Reserve is continuing its fight against inflation, raising interest rates six times this year, but rising prices are still weighing on consumers.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay described consumer behavior as more thoughtful and cautious during a forecast call Thursday.
“We know that lower- and middle-income consumers are feeling the most pressure when it comes to inflation,” said Shay, noting more of their income is going to housing, rent, energy, and food costs, leaving less for gifts and other holiday expenses.
These households are expected to rely more on their savings and credit to purchase holiday gifts.
In contrast, higher income households are expected to spend significantly more on average on holiday gifts, seasonal items, and other retail categories.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Consumers are worried about inflation. It’s on the top of their minds.”
A recent KPMG holiday survey came to the same conclusion, finding that inflation topped the list of shopper concerns, with 85 percent of those surveyed saying they were at least somewhat concerned about inflation.
“But they still have the ability to spend,” Kleinhenz added, noting consumers are supported by job growth, rising wages, and the ability to tap into savings.
Early shopping is here to stay.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but the holiday season has been extending into fall for the last decade, it noted.
The early shopping trend is due in part to concerns about inflation and product availability, said Kleinhenz.
In response to inflation, 46 percent of holiday shoppers said they would be browsing or buying before November, as per the NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
“Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October,” said Kleinhenz. “While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”
Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items, such as decorations and food, which is in line with the average for the last 10 years.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but the holiday season has been extending into fall for the last decade, it noted.
The early shopping trend is due in part to concerns about inflation and product availability, said Kleinhenz.
In response to inflation, 46 percent of holiday shoppers said they would be browsing or buying before November, as per the NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
“Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October,” said Kleinhenz. “While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”
Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items, such as decorations and food, which is in line with the average for the last 10 years.
The labor market will be an ongoing challenge for retailers.
NRF expects retailers will hire between 450,000 and 600,000 seasonal workers this year, down from 669,800 seasonal hires last year.
Notably, the method used to calculate holiday retail employment in 2020 was changed to accommodate the significant impact of COVID-19 on overall industry employment, the NRF said. In 2021, it returned to a traditional employment buildup method.
Some seasonal hires may have been counted in October, said the NRF, as retailers look to bolster their teams before the holiday season.
Retailers looking to hire will have to compete, as always, with other industries, to find the best talent.
“It’s been a tight job market. We still have 800,000 job openings in retail as of the end of September,” said Kleinhenz. “It will be an ongoing challenge.”
Shay described the labor market as “a real conundrum for employers,” but noted it’s also a partial explanation for why consumers have continued to spend.
“[The labor market] is one of the reasons consumers have behaved in such a resilient way, because wages are increasing and there’s pressure on the market and that keeps people spending.”
Shay noted some retailers in need of employees have gotten creative, highlighting UPS’ plan to hire more than 100,000 seasonal workers. The company retains, on average, more than one-third as permanent employees.
Winter weather poses an unpredictable problem.
How retailers fare this holiday season may somewhat depend on where they’re located.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected in the Southwest, the Gulf Coast, and the Eastern Seaboard, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
These sections of the country account for a large chunk of the U.S. population, noted NRF.
However, those located in the northern tier of the country are expected to see wetter and snowier weather.
Online shopping remains popular, but there may be a shift back to in-store shopping.
Online shopping will continue to grow this holiday season.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 10 and 12 percent to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion.
Sales in this category reached $238.9 billion last year, a significant jump as shoppers turned to e-commerce due to the pandemic.
However, the NRF said shoppers are also looking for a more traditional, in-store shopping experience.
The NRF’s holiday survey found 57 percent of respondents plan to shop online, up slightly from 56 percent last year.
The second-most popular destination was department stores (47 percent) followed by discount stores (44 percent).
As for what gifts consumers are hoping for, gift cards topped the list (54 percent), followed by clothing or accessories (49 percent) and electronics (24 percent). Jewelry was in sixth place at 21 percent, up from 20 percent in 2021 and 2020.
Overall retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
More on Surveys
The Latest
Events & AwardsOct 29, 2025
October Brings Little Change to Consumer Confidence Consumers are feeling more optimistic about their present situation while the short-term future remains a little scary.
Events & AwardsOct 29, 2025
Couture Partners With Time to WatchesThe company, which organizes a watch show in Geneva every spring, will bring a selection of watch brands to the 2026 Couture show in Vegas.
TrendsOct 29, 2025
Beth Bernstein Releases Vintage Jewelry Guide“The Modern Guide to Vintage Jewellery” follows the evolution of jewelry design from the ‘30s to the ‘80s with buying and styling advice.
EditorsOct 29, 2025
Why Creepy, Crawly Bugs Inspire Beautiful JewelryFor her annual Halloween story, Senior Editor Lenore Fedow explores the symbolism behind spiders, beetles, and other eerie insects.
Weekly QuizOct 16, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsOct 28, 2025
Meet the 2026 Gem Award NomineesNotable jewelry designers, members of the press, and retailers are up for an award at next year’s gala.
Recorded WebinarsOct 28, 2025
Watch: The State of the Jewelry Industry Leaders from Jewelers of America and National Jeweler discuss the gold price, tariffs, and more in this one-hour webinar.
Brought to you by
DESERT DIAMONDS: The Newest Trend in Natural Diamond JewelryFrom sunlit whites to smoky whiskeys, introduce your clients to extraordinary diamonds in colors as unique as their love.
CollectionsOct 28, 2025
Eriness Reflects on Life in ‘One of One’ CollectionAfter experiencing motherhood, growth, and loss, founder and designer Erin Sachse has created 10 irreplaceable jewels.
AuctionsOct 27, 2025
Napoleon Left This Brooch Behind, And Now It’s Up For AuctionIt is part of Sotheby’s “Royal & Noble Jewels” sale along with an ornate hair ornament and an old mine-cut light pink diamond ring.
CrimeOct 27, 2025
Arrests Made in Louvre Jewel Heist One of the individuals was apprehended at the airport as he was trying to flee the country.
MajorsOct 27, 2025
Target to Cut 1,800 Corporate JobsThe retailer, which has faced struggling sales in recent quarters, is looking to streamline its operations.
Events & AwardsOct 27, 2025
Hill Management Group Hired to Help Atlanta Jewelry ShowHill Management Group will oversee, market, and produce next year’s spring show.
AuctionsOct 24, 2025
Bonhams Under New Ownership, Top Executives ReplacedLondon-based investment firm Pemberton Asset Management acquired the auction house for an undisclosed amount.
GradingOct 24, 2025
DMIA to Hold Diamond Testing Instrument DemoThe workshop will give attendees the chance to try out and ask questions about three different diamond verification instruments.
CrimeOct 24, 2025
Video Emerges of Louvre Jewelry Robbers Fleeing the Scene The footage shows two of the jewelry heist suspects descending from the second floor of the museum and then escaping via scooter.
CollectionsOct 24, 2025
Piece of the Week: Wyld Box Jewelry’s ‘Ray of Light’ EarringsFounder and designer Rosanna Fiedler looked to a vintage Cartier clutch when designing the sunlight-inspired drop earrings.
FinancialsOct 23, 2025
Jewelry Sales Resilient Despite Struggles at LVMH, KeringThe luxury conglomerates faced a challenging Q3 amid geopolitical and economic tensions.
SourcingOct 23, 2025
Petra Diamonds Turns to Shareholders to Raise Capital The struggling diamond mining company, which owns the historic Cullinan mine, has launched a rights issue to raise about $25 million.
WatchesOct 23, 2025
‘Million Dollar Hip Hop Watches’ Recounts Watch HistoryThe book details the journey of watches as symbols of hard-earned success in hip-hop for artists like 2Pac, Jay-Z, and more.
AuctionsOct 23, 2025
Freeman’s | Hindman Names New VP, Senior Specialist for Jewelry & WatchesAlexis Vourvoulis, who most recently worked at Tiffany & Co., brings more than two decades of jewelry experience to her new role.
TrendsOct 22, 2025
The Taylor Swift Effect: Antique Diamonds EditionThe superstar’s August engagement put the stamp of approval on an already hot engagement ring trend.
TrendsOct 22, 2025
Don’t Forget These Diamond Jewelry Trends When Stocking for the HolidaysRetailers should offer classic styles with a twist that are a perfect fit for layered looks, experts say.
AuctionsOct 22, 2025
Pink Diamond, Vanderbilt Jewels to Headline Phillips’ Geneva AuctionThe nearly 7-carat fancy vivid purplish pink diamond could sell for around $9 million.
SourcingOct 22, 2025
In ‘Storied Diamond,’ Jared Jewelers Is Emphasizing the Journey The retailer’s new collection of engagement rings and fashion jewelry is set with natural diamonds that are traceable via blockchain.
CollectionsOct 22, 2025
Tiffany & Co.’s ‘Bird on a Rock’ Finds New PerchChief Artistic Officer Nathalie Verdeille has reimagined the iconic design in both figurative and abstract creations.
Events & AwardsOct 22, 2025
JFC Kicks Off Halloween Costume ChallengeFive dollars buys one vote toward an industry professional you want to see dressed up as a hero, or a villain, this Halloween.
