Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
An Updated Look at the Lab-Grown Diamond Market: Size, Pricing, and More Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
Looking Ahead: 4 Factors That Could Shape Lab-Grown Diamonds’ Future
Growing supply and falling prices likely will make differentiation a necessity and a reality, according to analyst Paul Zimnisky.
A worker at the Lightbox factory in Gresham, Oregon, where De Beers Group grows diamonds. Consumer demand for lab-grown diamonds is increasing, begging the question, what will the market look like in 10 to 15 years? Analyst Paul Zimnisky shared his viewpoints in a new report. (Photo courtesy of Lightbox/De Beers Group)
New York—Lab-grown diamonds are the category currently sparking the most conversation in the industry, from the debate over stocking the stones, to the questions of who is buying them, and who might be selling them in the near future.
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
Related stories will be right here …
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
The lack of grading reports, coupled with an increased supply, will further drive down the price of lab-grown diamonds, which already are significantly cheaper than natural diamonds.
According to Zimnisky, in mid-2018, a generic (non-branded) 1-carat, G VS1 lab-grown diamond retailed for $3,625, compared with $6,600 for a natural diamond of the same size and quality.
Today, that same lab-grown diamond retails for $1,615 while the natural is $6,705.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.” — Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
The expectation that prices will continue to drop sets the stage for the final two factors to come into play—branding and proprietary design, and custom shapes and colors.
There are existing jewelry companies positioned to pull off a “luxurious” version of lab-grown diamonds by leveraging existing brand value, with Zimnisky noting in his report, “A product does not necessarily need to be limited by nature for it to be rare or luxurious.”
He points to the Hermès Birkin bag as an example.
Hermès deliberately limits the supply to drive up value, and it works, with the coveted handbag trading hands for tens of thousands of dollars, at least, on the secondhand market.
“Theoretically, if Hermès came out with an exclusive, limited-edition lab-grown diamond ring, it would likely be perceived by consumers as an Hermès ring first, and a lab-grown diamond ring second,” Zimnisky writes.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.”
Two pieces in “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular jewelry brand’s new collection of lab-grown diamond jewelry. The line launched in the United States in August following a test in the U.K.
He does, however, see the opportunity for a “bridge” category of lab-grown diamond jewelry to emerge, lines that are lower-priced but affiliated with “premium” brands.
He points to “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular charm brand’s lab-grown diamond line that arrived in the United States late last month, as a current example.
Tested in the U.K. and proven to be more popular for gift-giving than for self-purchase, the line seems poised to take off in the U.S., with 33 styles to choose from in sterling silver or 14-karat gold and prices starting at $300.
“Pandora will be successful,” Zimnisky said. “They already have the right customer, distribution lined up, the right price point. It fits their business model better than anyone [else’s], in my opinion.”
Like branding, the fourth factor expected to shape the future of the lab-grown market—custom shapes and colors—will be a path diamond growers pursue in order to set themselves apart as prices fall and quality equalizes across the board.
Growers will take advantage of the stones’ lower prices to experiment in ways not possible or financially feasible with natural diamonds, Zimnisky said.
Indeed, some shape and color experimentation has popped up in the market already.
In 2018, Apple’s Jony Ive and design partner Marc Newson partnered with diamond grower Diamond Foundry in 2018 to create a ring entirely made out of diamond, while Swarovski rolled out of a line of imaginatively named lab-grown diamonds in a wide variety of colors in early 2020.
“People will eventually be able to go to a website and get a diamond cut into whatever shape they want,” Zimnisky predicts, whether it’s a Star of David, a cross, or a cat.
“What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” is available in its entirety on Zimnisky’s website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Lab-Grown
The Latest
IndependentsJun 05, 2026
Pennsylvania Jewelry Store To Close After 79 YearsJim Springer, owner of Dunkelberger’s Fine Jewelry, is heading into retirement.
SurveysJun 05, 2026
Consumers to Cut Back on Spending Amid Rising Prices, Survey Shows When conducting its May consumer confidence survey, The Conference Board asked extra questions about consumers’ budgeting strategies.
CollectionsJun 05, 2026
Rebel Jewelry’s Charm Symbolizes Perseverance for Pride MonthThe “Tunnel” charm, our Piece of the Week, celebrates Pride Month with its design inspired by hope and the light at the end of the tunnel.
Brought to you by
All Eyes on Gold Prices. Alternatives to Look For. And What to BEWARE of in VegasAs gold prices rise, today’s retailers are looking for alternatives at prices that will appeal to wider audiences.
SourcingJun 05, 2026
State of Diamonds: The Way Forward for Natural DiamondsThe jewelry industry is reassessing its positioning as Gen Z reshapes the retail landscape and lab grown continues to gain market share.
Weekly QuizJun 05, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
AuctionsJun 04, 2026
Treasures from Maurice Tempelsman’s ‘Marvelous’ Life Head to AuctionUp for auction at Sotheby’s, the collection of Tempelsman’s personal effects includes a Cartier Tank watch Jackie O. gifted him.
CollectionsJun 04, 2026
Buddha Mama to Spend the Summer in AspenThe Miami-based fine jewelry brand will host its first summer residency in the Colorado mountain town from June 5 to Aug. 23.
Brought to you by
How Modern Training Is Becoming a Competitive Advantage for Jewelry RetailersWith the trade and customer trust in mind, GIA® developed NextGem™ – on-demand training designed specifically for retail.
MajorsJun 04, 2026
AGS Honors Late Peter Yantzer, Holds Time Capsule CeremonyThe organization also announced its international board of directors for the 2026-2027 term.
MajorsJun 04, 2026
Neiman Marcus’ Downtown Dallas Store to Close in SeptemberSaks Global confirmed the closure this week, spelling the end for a store that’s been part of downtown Dallas for more than 100 years.
ColumnistsJun 03, 2026
Peter Smith: When Top Talent Leaves and What It Says About YouSmith discusses how managers should handle a top performer's exit, warning that a poor response could have a lasting impact.
GradingJun 03, 2026
GIA’s Tracr Investment Is First Step Toward Industry-Owned PlatformThe Gemological Institute of America is now a 30 percent stakeholder in Tracr, the De Beers-backed blockchain for diamonds.
WatchesJun 03, 2026
The 1916 Company Taking Pre-Owned Rolexes on the Road, AgainThe retailer is bringing Rolex Certified Pre-Owned watches to five U.S. cities in 2026 for collectors to see, try on, and purchase.
IndependentsJun 03, 2026
Jessica Alba Is the New Face of Gabriel & Co.The actress and entrepreneur stars in the jeweler’s new campaign that celebrates life’s quiet moments.
TrendsJun 03, 2026
State of Design: Only the Innovative Will SurviveThe price of gold has risen, affecting the number of pieces designers make, the materials they use, and how they position themselves.
FinancialsJun 02, 2026
Signet Jewelers’ Q1 Sales Up 2% As It Focuses on ‘Core Four’ The jewelry retailer is zeroing in on Zales, Jared, Kay Jewelers, and Blue Nile as it looks to create unique brand identities for each.
SourcingJun 02, 2026
Leader Appointed for Botswana’s Diamonds for Development Fund Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, a development economist, will head the fund created to help Botswana diversify its economy.
WatchesJun 02, 2026
Watch Industry Veteran James Marks Joins Sotheby’sSotheby’s has appointed the former Phillips executive as its global head of private sales and retail in its watches division.
AuctionsJun 02, 2026
Sotheby’s to Auction 10-Carat Blue Diamond, 1960s Harry Winston Necklace A private collection of five Paraíba tourmalines also will be up for sale at Sotheby’s High Jewelry auction in New York, scheduled for June 16.
IndependentsJun 02, 2026
State of Retail: 6 Things Retailers Should Know About Consumers TodayFrom Gen Z’s view of luxury to “doom spending,” these are the six consumer trends to note this year.
Events & AwardsJun 01, 2026
Design Atelier Brands Have a Big Night at Emotional Couture Design AwardsThe show started by honoring Mildred Marcano, ended with a tearful Beth Anne Bonanno, and recognized a dozen-plus designers in between.
SourcingJun 01, 2026
RapNet Rebranding as Rapaport TradeThe revamped online diamond marketplace will feature pricing intelligence and data-driven tools for more efficient buying and selling.
SourcingJun 01, 2026
Gemfields’ Higher-Quality Emerald Auction Achieves $26.8MThe miner said demand for higher-quality emeralds is stable, but there is notable caution in the market.
CollectionsMay 29, 2026
Cultus Artem’s Necklace Is the Oasis in Las Vegas’ DesertThe “River of Heaven” necklace, our Piece of the Week debuting at Couture, combines 26 salt and pepper diamonds spaced by Tahitian pearls.
IndependentsMay 29, 2026
Meet the 2026 Retailer Hall of Fame InducteesThis year’s inductees include second-, third-, and fourth-generation jewelers.
Events & AwardsMay 28, 2026
JCK Announces Jesse Itzler as 2026 Keynote SpeakerThe author, speaker, and entrepreneur will give his presentation, “Spiritual Billionaire,” on Saturday morning.
Events & AwardsMay 28, 2026
JCK Rocks To Ride With NellyThree-time Grammy award-winning artist Nelly is set to perform at the annual event at Tao Beach on Sunday night.
