Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
An Updated Look at the Lab-Grown Diamond Market: Size, Pricing, and More Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
Looking Ahead: 4 Factors That Could Shape Lab-Grown Diamonds’ Future
Growing supply and falling prices likely will make differentiation a necessity and a reality, according to analyst Paul Zimnisky.
A worker at the Lightbox factory in Gresham, Oregon, where De Beers Group grows diamonds. Consumer demand for lab-grown diamonds is increasing, begging the question, what will the market look like in 10 to 15 years? Analyst Paul Zimnisky shared his viewpoints in a new report. (Photo courtesy of Lightbox/De Beers Group)
New York—Lab-grown diamonds are the category currently sparking the most conversation in the industry, from the debate over stocking the stones, to the questions of who is buying them, and who might be selling them in the near future.
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
The lack of grading reports, coupled with an increased supply, will further drive down the price of lab-grown diamonds, which already are significantly cheaper than natural diamonds.
According to Zimnisky, in mid-2018, a generic (non-branded) 1-carat, G VS1 lab-grown diamond retailed for $3,625, compared with $6,600 for a natural diamond of the same size and quality.
Today, that same lab-grown diamond retails for $1,615 while the natural is $6,705.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.” — Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
The expectation that prices will continue to drop sets the stage for the final two factors to come into play—branding and proprietary design, and custom shapes and colors.
There are existing jewelry companies positioned to pull off a “luxurious” version of lab-grown diamonds by leveraging existing brand value, with Zimnisky noting in his report, “A product does not necessarily need to be limited by nature for it to be rare or luxurious.”
He points to the Hermès Birkin bag as an example.
Hermès deliberately limits the supply to drive up value, and it works, with the coveted handbag trading hands for tens of thousands of dollars, at least, on the secondhand market.
“Theoretically, if Hermès came out with an exclusive, limited-edition lab-grown diamond ring, it would likely be perceived by consumers as an Hermès ring first, and a lab-grown diamond ring second,” Zimnisky writes.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.”
Two pieces in “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular jewelry brand’s new collection of lab-grown diamond jewelry. The line launched in the United States in August following a test in the U.K.
He does, however, see the opportunity for a “bridge” category of lab-grown diamond jewelry to emerge, lines that are lower-priced but affiliated with “premium” brands.
He points to “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular charm brand’s lab-grown diamond line that arrived in the United States late last month, as a current example.
Tested in the U.K. and proven to be more popular for gift-giving than for self-purchase, the line seems poised to take off in the U.S., with 33 styles to choose from in sterling silver or 14-karat gold and prices starting at $300.
“Pandora will be successful,” Zimnisky said. “They already have the right customer, distribution lined up, the right price point. It fits their business model better than anyone [else’s], in my opinion.”
Like branding, the fourth factor expected to shape the future of the lab-grown market—custom shapes and colors—will be a path diamond growers pursue in order to set themselves apart as prices fall and quality equalizes across the board.
Growers will take advantage of the stones’ lower prices to experiment in ways not possible or financially feasible with natural diamonds, Zimnisky said.
Indeed, some shape and color experimentation has popped up in the market already.
In 2018, Apple’s Jony Ive and design partner Marc Newson partnered with diamond grower Diamond Foundry in 2018 to create a ring entirely made out of diamond, while Swarovski rolled out of a line of imaginatively named lab-grown diamonds in a wide variety of colors in early 2020.
“People will eventually be able to go to a website and get a diamond cut into whatever shape they want,” Zimnisky predicts, whether it’s a Star of David, a cross, or a cat.
“What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” is available in its entirety on Zimnisky’s website.
More on Lab-Grown
The Latest
EditorsNov 07, 2025
Piece of the Week: An MVP’s Sapphire Tennis Necklace At the 2025 World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto sported a custom necklace made by California retailer Happy Jewelers.
IndependentsNov 07, 2025
Foundrae’s New Palm Beach Location Is a ‘Golden Solarium’The brand’s seventh location combines Foundrae’s symbolic vocabulary with motifs from Florida’s natural surroundings.
FinancialsNov 07, 2025
Watches of Switzerland’s H1 Sales Up 8%The retailer also shared an update on the impact of tariffs on watch customers.
Brought to you by
Jewelers of America Aligns New Mission to Create Meaningful Impact for MembersFrom educational programs, advocacy, and recent MJSA affiliation, Jewelers of America drives progress that elevates businesses of all sizes.
SourcingNov 06, 2025
Pink Tourmaline Bracelet, Emerald Suite Take Top Spectrum Honors Pink and purple stones were popular in the AGTA’s design competition this year, as were cameos and ocean themes.
Weekly QuizNov 06, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsNov 06, 2025
Greenwich St. Jewelers Hosts Raffle Supporting Food RescueAll proceeds from the G. St x Jewel Boxing raffle will go to City Harvest, which works to end hunger in New York City.
IndependentsNov 06, 2025
Cornell’s Jewelers Names New PresidentCourtney Cornell is part of the third generation to lead the Rochester, New York-based jeweler.
SourcingNov 06, 2025
De Beers’ Production, Sales Increase in Q3 De Beers also announced more changes in its upper ranks ahead of parent company Anglo American’s pending sale of the company.
WatchesNov 05, 2025
Shinola President Steps Down Just as He Starts Former Signet CEO Mark Light will remain president of Shinola until a replacement for Ulrich Wohn is found.
AuctionsNov 05, 2025
Taylor Swift’s Engagement Ring Designer Makes Her Auction DebutKindred Lubeck of Artifex has three rings she designed with Anup Jogani in Sotheby’s upcoming Gem Drop sale.
FinancialsNov 05, 2025
Pandora Posts Modest Q3 Sales Growth Amid ‘Weak’ Consumer Sentiment The company focused on marketing in the third quarter and introduced two new charm collections, “Pandora Talisman” and “Pandora Minis.”
FinancialsNov 05, 2025
Brilliant Earth’s Q3 Sales Climb 10%The jewelry retailer raised its full-year guidance, with CFO Jeff Kuo describing the company as “very well positioned” for the holidays.
Policies & IssuesNov 04, 2025
Supreme Court to Hear Tariffs Case WednesdayAhead of the hearing, two industry organizations co-signed an amicus brief urging the court to declare Trump’s tariffs unlawful.
MajorsNov 04, 2025
Danny Clark to Become Stuller CEO, Succeeding Matt StullerStuller COO Belit Myers will take on the additional role of president, with all changes effective at the start of 2026.
ColumnistsNov 04, 2025
Peter Smith: What Do Birds Have to Do With the Price of Gold? Smith cautions retailers against expending too much energy on things they can’t control, like the rising price of gold.
TrendsNov 04, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Fall Colors for November BirthdaysCitrine and topaz are birthstones fit for fall as the leaves change color and the holiday season approaches.
IndependentsNov 04, 2025
Weston Jewelers Heads to Fort LauderdaleThe family-owned jeweler will open its fourth store in Florida in late 2027.
CrimeNov 03, 2025
Men Dressed as Construction Workers Burglarize Jeweler’s Home The NYPD is looking for three men who stole a safe and jewelry valued at $3.2 million from the home of a jeweler in Jamaica Hills, Queens.
MajorsNov 03, 2025
Matthew Rosenheim Takes Over as JA Board ChairThe trade organization also announced its executive committee and five new directors.
CollectionsNov 03, 2025
Muse’s ‘Have a Heart’ Collab Returns, Now With DDGThe “Have a Heart x Diamonds Do Good” collection is championed by model and humanitarian Flaviana Matata and will benefit her foundation.
AuctionsNov 03, 2025
Kashmir Sapphire Ring Tops Christie's Online AuctionThe ring, set with a nearly 17-carat Kashmir cabochon sapphire, sold for $1 million.
TrendsOct 31, 2025
Piece of the Week: A Spinner Fit for ‘Frankenstein’This “Mother Father” spinner necklace from Heavenly Vices Fine Jewelry draws inspiration from Victorian Era jewelry.
CrimeOct 31, 2025
5 More Arrested in Louvre Heist, Jewelry Still Missing The suspects were rounded up in Paris and its suburbs on Wednesday night, but none of the stolen jewels were recovered with them.
Recorded WebinarsOct 31, 2025
Watch: How to Master Google Reviews for Your BusinessExperts share top tips on how to encourage positive reviews and handle negative feedback.
Supplier BulletinOct 30, 2025
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessSponsored by the Gemological Institute of America
CrimeOct 30, 2025
29-Year-Old Man Charged in Multiple Seattle-Area Smash and Grabs The suspect faces charges in the August robbery of Menashe & Sons Jewelers and is accused of committing smash and grabs at two pawn shops.
